Recent bullishness in corn and soybean futures has been driven by a tightening balance sheet in both crops. Demand has expanded, and weather in key growing areas has trimmed supply. That weather is now showing up in the USDA crop condition ratings (USDA-NASS, 2026), and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour came in well below USDA on corn (Pro Farmer, 2026), which has set off a good deal of online debate about yield estimation.



August is the first WASDE of the year in which USDA revises yields using survey data rather than trend, and it is where the largest yield revisions of the season cluster (Gardner, 2026). Those revisions do not stop in August: since 2010, the final corn yield has differed from the August estimate by an average of 3.8 bushels, landing below it in 11 of 16 years, and soybeans have differed by 1.5 bushels. In the August WASDE (USDA-WAOB, 2026), USDA cut corn yield expectations by 2.3 bushels to 180.7 bushels per acre and soybean yields by 0.3 bushels to 52.7 bushels per acre.



Meanwhile, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which samples fields across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota, estimated corn at 173.2 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.3 bushels per acre. That puts the Tour 7.5 bushels under USDA on corn and 0.6 bushels over USDA on soybeans. Those seven states account for roughly two-thirds of U.S. corn and soybean production, and the Tour does not sample the rest, so the national figure carries an editorial judgment for the remaining third of the crop.



While the online discussion has focused on the size of that corn gap, the historical record suggests it means less than it appears. Figure 1 shows the average difference between the Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimate and four USDA yield numbers from 2016 through 2025: the August, September, and October WASDE, and the final yield. On corn, the Tour sits below all four, and the gap narrows at every step, from 3.5 bushels against the August number to 2.3 bushels against the final. USDA moves toward the Tour as the season progresses, but never all the way. On soybeans, the same progression appears at a far smaller scale, running from 0.1 bushels below the August number to 0.4 bushels above the final.



Figure 2 shows how far apart the two yield estimates sit as the season progresses. Crop years from 2016 through 2025 are split into two groups based on how far the Pro Farmer estimate landed from the August WASDE. Blue marks the years the two started close together, red the years they started far apart. The pattern is the same in both crops. Wherever the two estimates start, they end up in a similar place by October. On corn, the gap narrows from 5.2 bushels to 2.8 in the years that started far apart, while the years that started close widen from 2.0 to 2.8. The two groups land on the same number. On soybeans, they go further and trade places entirely, with the wide years closing from 1.6 to 0.6 and the close years opening from 0.6 to 1.4.



The practical point is that the size of the August disagreement does not tell you much about what follows. A loud year and a quiet year arrive at about the same distance by October. That is worth keeping in mind this fall, because the 7.5 bushel corn gap between the Tour and the August WASDE is the widest in this sample, and the history here does not support reading that width as a forecast of how far USDA has to move.



The Crop Tour is better read as direction than level. It has come in below the August WASDE on corn in nine of the last ten years by an average of 3.5 bushels, so this year&#8217;s 7.5 bushel gap is closer to four bushels of real news, and USDA&#8217;s own August number has been the more accurate of the two against the final. On soybeans, there is no yield story at all, since the Tour landed slightly above USDA. The September Crop Production report is the first chance for USDA to move with new survey data behind it. Producers pricing into this rally should know that part of it rests on an estimate history says overstates the corn shortfall.



Figure 1. Average Pro Farmer Crop Tour August yield estimate minus the USDA yield, 2016 through 2025, measured against the August, September, and October WASDE and the final yield. Negative values indicate the Crop Tour was lower. The October average excludes the 2025 crop year, when the Crop Production and WASDE reports were canceled during the federal government shutdown.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1950" height="1320" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-1-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44711" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-1-1.png 1950w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-1-1-767x519.png 767w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-1-1-1024x693.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-1-1-1536x1040.png 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1950px) 100vw, 1950px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Pro Farmer; USDA WASDE archive (ESMIS) and USDA NASS.</figcaption></figure>



Figure 2. Average absolute difference between USDA&#8217;s in-season yield estimate and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour&#8217;s August estimate, with crop years split at the median August difference. Complete August, September, and October years only, nine per crop.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1950" height="1440" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-2-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44712" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-2-1.png 1950w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-2-1-1024x756.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-2-1-768x567.png 768w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/6.36.3-2-1-1536x1134.png 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1950px) 100vw, 1950px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Pro Farmer; USDA WASDE archive (ESMIS) and USDA NASS.</figcaption></figure>



References



Gardner, Grant. “July 2026 WASDE: Acreage Moves in July, Yields Move in August.” Southern Ag Today, July 15, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/07/15/july-2026-wasde-acreage-moves-in-july-yields-move-in-august/">https://southernagtoday.org/2026/07/15/july-2026-wasde-acreage-moves-in-july-yields-move-in-august/</a>



Pro Farmer. “2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour.” Pro Farmer, August 22, 2026. https://www.profarmer.com/pro-farmer-crop-tour



U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS). “Crop Progress.” August 24, 2026. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-progress



U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board (USDA-WAOB). “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.” August 12, 2026. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/world-agricultural-supply-and-demand-estimates



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Recommended citation format: Gardner, Grant. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/01/does-a-big-pro-farmer-crop-tour-gap-mean-a-big-wasde-yield-change/">Does a Big Pro Farmer Crop Tour Gap Mean a Big WASDE Yield Change?</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(36.3). September 2, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/01/does-a-big-pro-farmer-crop-tour-gap-mean-a-big-wasde-yield-change/">Permalink</a>

Does a Big Pro Farmer Crop Tour Gap Mean a Big WASDE Yield Change?

Australian beef has become an increasingly significant presence in the U.S. import market. In 2022, Australia contributed 401.8 million pounds, roughly 12 percent of total U.S. beef imports. Australia’s share of imports has steadily grown since then, reaching 25 percent of total imports in 2025, and the trend shows no signs of reversing in 2026.



Figure 1 illustrates Australia&#8217;s beef imports as a share of total monthly U.S. beef imports in 2025, 2026, and the five-year average from 2020 to 2024. Historically, Australian beef represented a relatively steady 13 percent to 21 percent of monthly U.S. imports. In 2025, that share climbed well above that historical norm, rising sharply through the second half of the year and peaking near 32 percent before finishing December around 31 percent. So far in 2026, the pattern has followed a similar seasonal trend, dipping in the early months before recovering, with recent months tracking above the same period in 2025. Taken together, the data makes clear that Australian beef now occupies a structurally larger share of the U.S. import market than what was considered normal just a few years ago.



Trade Ports



Understanding where this beef originates can also help producers and market watchers track future import flows. Australian beef exports to the U.S. move primarily through ports on Australia&#8217;s east coast. Based on the most recent available data, which captures all Australian red meat exports but is largely driven by beef, the Port of Melbourne, Victoria, accounted for 41 percent of exports. Melbourne serves as a major export gateway given the high concentration of packing facilities in the surrounding region. The Port of Brisbane, Queensland, handled 35 percent of exports and is one of Australia&#8217;s most active meat-loading ports, home to JBS Dinmore, the largest beef processing plant in the Southern Hemisphere, along with Cargill and several other major processors in the Brisbane Valley. Port Botany in Sydney, New South Wales, accounted for 19 percent of exports, while the Port of Adelaide, South Australia, and the Port of Fremantle, Western Australia, represented just 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively. The concentration of export activity through Melbourne and Brisbane reflects the infrastructure and processing capacity those regions have built to supply export markets, including an increasingly hungry U.S. import market.



What Does This Mean? More imported beef means more competition for space in the domestic market, especially for cull cows and bulls. While the majority of imports have been lean beef trimmings for ground beef, muscle cuts are also imported, which would compete more directly with fed beef.&nbsp; Imports are of particular interest now, as the U.S. cow herd sits near historic lows following years of liquidation driven by drought and high input costs. Domestic producers might have rebuilding in their plans, but rebuilding takes years and requires producer expectations of cattle prices to remain financially viable. At a time when tighter domestic beef supplies would normally support even stronger prices, the surge in Australian (and other countries&#8217;) imports is a counterweight, tempering some of the price signals U.S. producers are counting on to invest.



Figure 1. Monthly Australia beef imports as a percentage of all US beef imports 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.36.2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44699"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: USDA-ERS</figcaption></figure>



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Recommended citation format: Martinez, Charley. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/recent-australian-beef-import-trends/">Recent Australian Beef Import Trends.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(36.2). September 1, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/recent-australian-beef-import-trends/">Permalink</a>

Recent Australian Beef Import Trends

Authors: James L. Mitchell, Associate Professor and Fryar Price Risk Management Center Associate Director, University of Arkansas, and Ryan Loy, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist, University of Arkansas.



With cattle prices at historical highs, few investments carry more weight for a cow-calf operation than the decision to add replacement females. A producer has several options including buying heifers or mature cows that are either bred or open, buying cow/calf pairs, or retaining and developing a heifer calf of their own.&nbsp; Each option comes with unique upfront costs and timing of returns. Current heifer prices have raised the stakes and financial tradeoffs of this decision, and the best strategy depends on assumptions that vary by operation and year.&nbsp;



Buying a bred heifer means paying today’s price to calve next spring. Raising your own means giving up what a calf could have sold for at weaning, covering a year of expenses, and waiting an extra year for her first calf. Higher heifer prices make buying more expensive but also increases the opportunity cost of holding a heifer calf back rather than selling her.



<a href="https://james-mitchell-1620.shinyapps.io/heifer-analysis/">The Beef Cow and Heifer Investment Analysis</a> tool was developed to help producers with this decision. The tool is a free online dashboard that allows producers to enter their own data, such as heifer price, annual cow costs, weaning weight, calf crop percentage, cull weight, discount rate, and cost inflation. The dashboard returns net present value (NPV), breakeven heifer price, payback period, and average annual net return, all of which update in real time (Figure 1).



Figure 1. Heifer Investment Analysis Dashboard Overview



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1008" height="710" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.36.1-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44689" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.36.1-1.png 1008w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.36.1-1-767x540.png 767w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Note: The analysis presented assumes that a producer self-finances the heifer purchase. A user may also select borrowed funds to compare the feasibility of both options.   </figcaption></figure>



Consider the dashboard’s default assumptions: a 92% weaning rate, 520-pound weaning weight, $1,100 in annual cow costs, an 8 percent discount rate, and an 8-year productive life, with calf prices and cost inflation following the USDA calf price forecast (users can also substitute their own price and cost expectations). Under these assumptions, the tool estimates the maximum price a producer could pay for a heifer while maintaining an 8 percent return ($5,018/hd in this case), as well as the payback period to recover the investment. Changing an assumption can significantly impact the outcome, highlighting how much this decision is operation specific. For example, reducing the weaning rate to 87% (compared to the default 92%), while holding all other assumptions constant, results in a net present value of -$596/hd. &nbsp;



The decision to buy or raise heifers boils down to cash-flow timing and the price paid relative to what a heifer returns over her productive life. The dashboard does not determine which strategy is correct for an operation. However, it provides cattle producers and other agricultural stakeholders with a framework to evaluate the trade-offs between these strategies. The Beef Cow and Heifer Investment Analysis Tool is completely free to use and can be accessed <a href="https://james-mitchell-1620.shinyapps.io/heifer-analysis/">here</a> on any device with an internet connection.



This is part of a series of articles on the new Beef Cow and Heifer Investment Analysis Tool. In forthcoming articles, we will review other features of the tool, the user manual, and interpretation of the results the tool provides.



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Recommended citation format: Mitchell, James, and Ryan Loy. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/how-much-should-you-pay-for-a-replacement-heifer/">How Much Should You Pay for a Replacement Heifer?</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(36.1). August 31, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/how-much-should-you-pay-for-a-replacement-heifer/">Permalink</a>

How Much Should You Pay for a Replacement Heifer?

Authors: Jesse J. Richardson, Jr. and Paul Goeringer



A recent Missouri case provides an important reminder of the importance of how property is titled and the implications of attempting to change the titling of property. The story in Sielert v. Sielert, 737 S.W.3d 210 (Mo. Ct. App. 2026) begins with brothers Loren, Brian, and David Sielert receiving title to the family farm from their mother as joint tenants with the right of survivorship. With a joint tenancy, the ownership interest in a deceased co-owner passes to the other co-owners equally. In this case, Loren and David passed away, and Brian claimed sole ownership of the farm.



However, prior to his death, Loren recorded a beneficiary deed (also called transfer on death deed) that conveyed his interest to his son, Jordan, and recited that the deed severed the joint tenancy with right of survivorship and converted Loren’s interest to a tenancy in common. A tenancy in common is the other major way that multiple landowners can hold property. In a tenancy in common, the ownership interest held by a deceased owner passes to their heirs or under their will. In this case, if Loren held his 1/3 interest as a tenant in common, that 1/3 interest would pass to his son Jordan.



Therefore, the question in this case was whether Brian held a 100% interest in the farm or whether Brian owned a 2/3 interest and his nephew Jordan a 1/3 interest. Brian filed suit against his nephew, claiming 100% ownership interest.



A co-owner may sever a joint tenancy with right of survivorship by conveying their interest. The rules are fairly complex, so you should consult with an attorney if you have specific questions. However, a beneficiary deed conveys the property at the death of the grantor (in this case, Loren). The language in the beneficiary deed purporting to sever the joint tenancy was not enough to sever the joint tenancy. The court found that at Loren’s death, his interest in the property instantaneously went to the surviving joint tenants. Therefore, there was nothing left for the beneficiary deed to convey. Brian owns 100% of the family farm.



This case reminds us of the importance of the way property is titled. If Mom wanted the last survivor of her three children to own the family farm, the joint tenancy with right of survivorship would accomplish that goal. However, any of the three children could thwart that goal by conveying the property and severing the joint tenancy. This case also illustrates the limitations of conventional forms of property ownership. Mom perhaps should have formed a limited liability and included agreements to ensure that her goals were accomplished. The case also teaches important concepts about a beneficiary (or transfer on death) deed. These deeds allow a property owner to retain ownership until their death and convey the property without going through probate. However, like any other legal document, you should consult with an attorney and give the matter considerable thought before using that tool. Ironically, it appears that Loren consulted an attorney, but the attorney did not completely understand the nature of a beneficiary deed. The bottom line is that estate and transition planning is complex and involves difficult family dynamics. Every step should be well thought out and discussed with the family and an attorney.



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Recommended citation format: Richardson, Jr., Jesse J., and Paul Goeringer. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/the-importance-of-titling-of-property/">The Importance of Titling of Property</a>.&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(35.5). August 28, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/the-importance-of-titling-of-property/">Permalink</a>

The Importance of Titling of Property

U.S. agricultural trade has faced a lot of headwinds in recent years. Events such as the global pandemic, international military conflicts, increased competition, a slowing global economy, domestic weather events, a 75 year low in cattle inventory, slumping crop prices, high input prices, and a relatively strong dollar have adversely impacted trade flows and the overall U.S. farm economy.&nbsp; These events, along with trade policy battles with our major export buyers – China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, would lead many to conclude that U.S. ag exports have likely plummeted amidst these challenging global events.



Last year, U.S. ag exports did finish 12% off its record high value of $196 billion in 2022 but have remained in the $170 billion dollar level for four of the past five years (2021-2025), compared to averaging $143 billion during the previous five-year period (2016-2020). Amidst multiple trade challenges, the most recent five-year period has actually been the highest U.S. ag export value in history.



In reality, lower prices for several commodities have constrained recent U.S. export values.&nbsp; Isolating on trade volume, U.S. export quantities during this turbulent period have remained near record levels.&nbsp; USDA data reveal that aggregate ag export quantities for 2025 are the third highest on record and only 2.5% below the largest level achieved in 2021.



Looking at the data more closely, one market, China, accounted for over 100% of the loss in U.S. ag export value since 2022. The value of U.S. ag exports for 20 of our top 25 foreign markets increased from 2022 to 2025, with some of our major ag export markets like Mexico, the European Union, South Korea, Colombia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Dominican Republic finishing 2025 at record high levels.&nbsp; From an individual commodity/ag product perspective, ethanol, corn, dairy products, and tree nuts hit record export values during the past year.



Plus, the overall strength in U.S. ag exports is continuing so far in 2026. Through the first half of this year, U.S. ag exports are up 7% in value (and 10% in volume).  At this pace, U.S. ag exports for 2026 could end the year exceeding $180 billion – second highest on record.  Most of the gains so far in 2026 can be attributed to a rebounding Chinese market &#8212; up 43% in value and 115 % in quantity. Notable increases in export value during the first six months of 2026 include soybeans, up 33%, soybean meal up 20%, ethanol up 21%, tree nuts up 28%, fresh fruits and vegetables, both up 11%; and distilled spirits, up 26%.  But traditional southern crops like tobacco, rice, and cotton continue their downward trends, off 32%, 14%, and 6%, respectively, so far in 2026.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2310" height="1155" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44684" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.4.png 2310w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.4-1024x512.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.4-1536x768.png 1536w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.4-768x384.png 768w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.4-2048x1024.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2310px) 100vw, 2310px" /></figure>



Recommended citation format: Snell, Will. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/the-resiliency-of-u-s-ag-exports/">The Resiliency of U.S. Ag Exports</a>.&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(35.4). August 27, 2026. <a href="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/2026/08/26/the-resiliency-of-u-s-ag-exports/↗">Permalink</a>

The Resiliency of U.S. Ag Exports

Sorghum and corn prices move together, but not in lockstep (Figure 1A). For a sorghum producer, the spread between them can matter as much as the direction of corn prices. Since 1989, the monthly spread has ranged from a $1.72 discount to a $1.47 premium, and the largest swings have come recently (Figure 1B). In June 2026, sorghum averaged 17 cents above corn, yet USDA&#8217;s 2025/26 season-average estimates imply a 60-cent discount for the year. Relative prices can change that fast.



A sorghum grower faces two price risks. The first is the broad grain-price risk sorghum shares with corn, and corn futures have long served as the cross-hedge. The second is the risk that sorghum moves against corn, widening or narrowing the spread. Nothing has priced that one. On August 24, 2026, CME Group listed a contract that does (CME Group 2026a).



Export exposure is a major driver of spread moves. USDA estimates 2025/26 exports at 210 million bushels against 230 million bushels of domestic use, so exports account for about 48 percent of the two combined (Figure 2). For 2026/27, USDA projects 170 million bushels of exports and 140 million bushels of domestic use. The export share rises to 55 percent even though exports fall, because domestic use falls farther.



Historically, a higher export-to-domestic-use ratio has come with a stronger sorghum price relative to corn. From 2006/07 through 2024/25, moving that ratio from 1.0 to 2.0 was associated with a 27-cent-per-bushel improvement in the spread, and the relationship accounts for 57 percent of the variation in price (Figure 3). It is descriptive, not causal. Production, freight, trade policy, and feed demand all move both exports and domestic use. The 2025/26 estimate sits about 34 cents below the fitted line, a reminder that the ratio measures exposure rather than a complete pricing model.



Sorghum futures (MILO) trade as a differential to CBOT corn rather than as a flat price, the first sorghum contract since the Kansas City Board of Trade delisted its own in 1999. The two risks come apart. Corn futures manage the level. MILO manages the spread.



Consider a grower expecting to sell 50,000 bushels. Ten MILO contracts match that volume. A grower who fears sorghum will weaken relative to corn sells MILO. A 30-cent decline in the spread would cut the crop&#8217;s relative value by about $15,000, and a 30-cent decline in MILO would return about that much on the short position, before commissions and residual basis risk.



One caution about the word basis. MILO prices the sorghum-corn differential, not a local cash basis, and it settles to no cash index. Settlement is by physical delivery of sorghum to exchange-approved elevators in Kansas City, Wichita, Hutchinson, and Salina at a 6 to 12 cent discount per bushel (CME Group 2026b). There are no delivery point in the South. MILO will converge to an interior Kansas spread set by feeders and ethanol plants, while much of the region prices against Gulf export loadings. Whether the two track closely enough to hedge is an open question, and one that groups like the National Sorghum Producers has been raising.Liquidity will decide the rest. Producers with grain to sell are natural short hedgers. Feeders, ethanol plants, and other end users are natural longs. Merchandisers and exporters may take either side. If participation generates sufficient trading volume, open interest, and two-sided liquidity, sorghum gains a public price for a risk that has never had one. If it doesn’t, that poses a whole new set of risks for growers.



Figure 1 &#8211; Sorghum prices track corn closely; the relative spread is the key signal 



Panels: A. U.S. monthly average prices received by farmers. B. Sorghum price minus corn price. January 1989 through June 2026.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="948" height="640" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44674" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-1.png 948w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-1-767x518.png 767w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 948px) 100vw, 948px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: USDA ERS Feed Grains Database and USDA NASS Agricultural Prices. Note: June 2026 sorghum premium equals sorghum price minus corn price.</figcaption></figure>



Figure 2 &#8211; Exports are a large and volatile component of U.S. sorghum use



Marketing-year disappearance by use category, with exports as a share of total use; 2006/07–2026/27



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="952" height="498" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44675" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-2.png 952w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-2-767x401.png 767w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 952px) 100vw, 952px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: USDA WASDE, August 2026; USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. Note: USDA estimates 2025/26 exports at 210 million bushels against 230 million bushels of domestic use, a 48 percent export share. For 2026/27, it projects exports of 170 million bushels and domestic use of 140 million, a 55 percent share. Hatched bars mark the estimate and the projection. The black line, read against the right axis, shows exports as a share of domestic use plus exports.</figcaption></figure>



Figure 3 &#8211; Heavier export dependence is historically associated with stronger sorghum pricing: 2006/07 – 2024/25



Season-average sorghum premium/discount vs. exports divided by domestic use; Actual years used for the historical fit



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="982" height="594" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44676" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-3.png 982w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/6.35.3-3-767x464.png 767w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 982px) 100vw, 982px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: USDA WASDE, USDA ERS Feed Grains Database, and USDA season-average farm prices. Note: Ordinary least squares fit on actual observations for 2006/07 through 2024/25, with a 95 percent confidence band. Moving the ratio from 1.0 to 2.0 lifts the fitted spread 27 cents per bushel, from a 24-cent discount to roughly break-even. R² of 0.57. The fitted spread crosses zero at a ratio of 1.88. The 2026/27 projected ratio of 1.21 implies an 18-cent discount, within two cents of USDA&#8217;s own forecasts of $4.30 for sorghum against $4.50 for corn. The 2025/26 estimate and 2026/27 projection are shown as open markers and are not used in the fit. The relationship is descriptive, not causal.</figcaption></figure>



Recommended citation format: Calil, Yuri. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/a-new-futures-contract-for-the-sorghum-corn-spread/">A New Futures Contract for the Sorghum-Corn Spread.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(35.3). August 26, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/a-new-futures-contract-for-the-sorghum-corn-spread/">Permalink</a>



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References



CME Group. 2026a. “CME Group Launches Sorghum Basis Futures to Meet Global Feed, Export, and Biofuel Demand.” Press release, July 21. <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/7/21/cme_group_launchessorghumbasisfuturestomeetglobalfeedexportandbi.html">https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/7/21/cme_group_launchessorghumbasisfuturestomeetglobalfeedexportandbi.html</a>



CME Group. 2026b. “FAQ: Sorghum Futures.” July 21. <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-sorghum-futures.html">https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-sorghum-futures.html</a>



U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 2026. Feed Grains Database. Updated August 13. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database



U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Agricultural Prices. Monthly prices received by farmers, January 1989 through June 2026.



U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board. 2026. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-674. August 12. https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0826.pdf



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Recommended citation format: Calil, Yuri. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/a-new-futures-contract-for-the-sorghum-corn-spread/">A New Futures Contract for the Sorghum-Corn Spread.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(35.3). August 26, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/08/25/a-new-futures-contract-for-the-sorghum-corn-spread/">Permalink</a>

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