It is not news that Brazil is a powerhouse in agricultural production, especially in soybeans and corn. What may be news for some is that these two crops are strongly linked in Brazil through double cropping. About 80% of Brazil&#8217;s corn production happens as a second season corn crop, known as safrinha, immediately after the first crop (usually soybeans) is harvested. However, corn being planted as a second crop is more exposed to weather risk in the most sensitive growth stages of the plant (flowering and grain filling), so it is crucial that it is planted within the low-risk window, and that the first crop is harvested on time. With a record El Niño forming, the question for 2027 is whether the safrinha will be planted on time.



In Mato Grosso (Brazil’s largest corn-producing state), soybeans are planted mostly from mid-September through October and harvested mostly in January and February. However, the low-risk window to plant safrinha, defined by Brazil&#8217;s official agricultural climate risk zoning (ZARC), ends between early February and mid-March, depending on the region and the soil.&nbsp;



According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 75% chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest recorded since 1950 for the October through December period, which coincides with Brazil’s soybean planting. If the consistency of rainfall is affected by this phenomenon, it can delay soybean planting, especially because most of the soybean area in Brazil is rainfed. If soybean planting is delayed, it may push safrinha corn planting to later dates, which could be after the low-risk window closes. Figure 1 shows the share of safrinha area planted after the low-risk window and the yields compared with the trend for each season in Mato Grosso.



In a typical season, about 3 in 10 hectares of safrinha in Mato Grosso are planted after the low-risk window (Figure 1). In the 2015/16 season, the last very strong El Niño, almost half of the safrinha area was planted after the window. Planting was also heavily delayed in 2020/21, a La Niña year: almost 55% of the area was planted after the low-risk window. In both years, we had a significant decrease in yields compared with the trend: a 29% reduction in 2015/16, and almost 13% in 2020/21. In the other nine seasons, yields stayed near the trend. In 2015/16, El Niño also affected the growing season, which may have compounded the effect of delayed planting: rains that usually last until late May stopped in April, when most of the corn in Mato Grosso was flowering and filling grain (Agrolink, 2016a, 2016b).



However, El Niño does not always delay the safrinha. In 2018/19 and 2023/24, weaker El Niño seasons, only 18% and 23% of the area, respectively, were planted after the window, and yields were at or above the trend. What matters is whether the rains start late, which El Niño makes more likely, but does not guarantee.



Figure 1. Share of Safrinha Corn Area Planted after the Low-Risk Window (Upper Panel) and Yield Deviation from the 2005/06–2024/25 Linear Trend (Lower Panel), Mato Grosso, 2015/16–2025/26



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1430" height="889" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.3-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44947" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.3-1.png 1430w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.3-1-1024x637.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.3-1-768x477.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Sources: Imea (Mato Grosso’s Agricultural Economics Institute); IBGE-PAM; Conab. Notes: Low-risk window: Brazil’s official agricultural climate risk zoning (ZARC) for early-maturing corn on soils of average water-holding capacity, 20% risk of loss, set for each Imea region. ENSO phase: Based on NOAA’s October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). El Niño and La Niña refer to conditions during October–December, not necessarily the entire crop season. “Other” includes La Niña and neutral conditions. 2025/26 yield is a Conab estimate.</figcaption></figure>



If the 2026/27 El Niño affects the soybean planting and harvesting time, pushing safrinha to be planted after the low-risk window, Brazil may have lower yields again. This can impact global prices and quantities as most of Brazil&#8217;s corn exports come from the safrinha, which competes directly with U.S. corn in the second half of the year. If the El Niño effects last for more than just the soybean season, reaching the safrinha growing season, the effect may be even larger. It is still too early to say what the effects of this El Niño will be, but three numbers are worth watching: soybean planting in Mato Grosso by October 31 (in 2015/16 and 2020/21, it was below 60%), the soybean harvest by February 20, and rainfall in April, when the safrinha is flowering.



REFERENCES



Agrolink. (2016a, April).&nbsp;MT/milho: Corte de chuvas vai se confirmando&nbsp;[MT/corn: Rain cutoff is being confirmed].&nbsp;<a href="https://www.agrolink.com.br/noticias/mt-milho--corte-de-chuvas-vai-se-confirmando_349436.html">https://www.agrolink.com.br/noticias/mt-milho&#8211;corte-de-chuvas-vai-se-confirmando_349436.html</a>



Agrolink. (2016b, May 29).&nbsp;Milho/MT: Plantio tardio, colheita &#8220;precoce&#8221;&nbsp;[Corn/MT: Late planting, &#8220;early&#8221; harvest].&nbsp;Reprinted from&nbsp;Diário de Cuiabá.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.agrolink.com.br/noticias/milho-mt--plantio-tardio--colheita--precoce-_355851.html">https://www.agrolink.com.br/noticias/milho-mt&#8211;plantio-tardio&#8211;colheita&#8211;precoce-_355851.html</a>



Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). (2026a, August 13).&nbsp;Acompanhamento da safra brasileira de grãos: Safra 2025/26, 11º levantamento&nbsp;[Brazilian grain crop monitoring: 2025/26 season, 11th survey].&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br/atuacao/informacoes-agropecuarias/safras/safra-de-graos/boletim-da-safra-de-graos/11o-levantamento-safra-2025-26/e-book_boletim-de-safras-11o-levantamento_2026.pdf">https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br/atuacao/informacoes-agropecuarias/safras/safra-de-graos/boletim-da-safra-de-graos/11o-levantamento-safra-2025-26/e-book_boletim-de-safras-11o-levantamento_2026.pdf</a>



Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab).&nbsp;(2026b).&nbsp;Séries históricas das safras: Milho 2ª safra&nbsp;[Historical crop series: Second-crop corn] [Data set]. Retrieved September 28, 2026, from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br/atuacao/informacoes-agropecuarias/safras/series-historicas/graos/milho/milho2aseriehist.xls/view">https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br/atuacao/informacoes-agropecuarias/safras/series-historicas/graos/milho/milho2aseriehist.xls/view</a>



Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). (2026).&nbsp;Produção Agrícola Municipal, Tabela 839: Área plantada de milho 2ª safra&nbsp;[Municipal Agricultural Production, Table 839: Second-crop corn planted area] [Data set].&nbsp;SIDRA. Retrieved September 28, 2026, from&nbsp;<a href="https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/839">https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela/839</a>



Instituto Mato-Grossense de Economia Agropecuária (Imea). (2026).&nbsp;Boletins semanais e estimativas de safra de milho, safras 2015/16 a 2025/26&nbsp;[Weekly corn bulletins and crop estimates, 2015/16 to 2025/26 seasons].&nbsp;



Ministério da Agricultura e Pecuária (MAPA). (2026).&nbsp;Zoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático (ZARC): Milho 2ª safra, Mato Grosso, safra 2026/27&nbsp;[Agricultural climate risk zoning: Second-crop corn, Mato Grosso, 2026/27 season].&nbsp;Retrieved September 28, 2026, from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/riscos-seguro/programa-nacional-de-zoneamento-agricola-de-risco-climatico/portarias/safra-vigente/mato-grosso">https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/riscos-seguro/programa-nacional-de-zoneamento-agricola-de-risco-climatico/portarias/safra-vigente/mato-grosso</a>



NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (2026a, September 10).&nbsp;ENSO diagnostic discussion.<a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml</a>



NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (2026b).&nbsp;Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)&nbsp;[Data set]. Retrieved September 29, 2026, from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt</a>



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Recommended citation format: Pinto, Bruno. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/10/12/el-nino-and-brazils-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned/">El Niño and Brazil&#8217;s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(42.3). October 14, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/10/12/el-nino-and-brazils-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned/">Permalink</a>

El Niño and Brazil’s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?

While cattle prices have declined sharply in a break that began in July, there has been little action in the boxed beef cutout.&nbsp;&nbsp;The cutout value represents the value of the seven primal beef cuts in the proper proportion of the carcass.&nbsp;&nbsp;It is often thought of as a good, representative wholesale value of the beef carcass.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The Choice cutout declined from $397 per cwt the week before the July 4th&nbsp;holiday to $363 per cwt by the first week of August.&nbsp;&nbsp;Declining cutout values in the weeks following Independence Day are the normal seasonal price pattern.&nbsp;&nbsp;Cutout values tend to increase leading up to Labor Day, and they did this year, climbing back to a weekly average of $388 by late August.&nbsp;&nbsp;The Choice cutout has since remained in a range between $374 and $379.&nbsp;&nbsp;While the cutout remains at historically high levels, it has been below last year’s Labor Day surge.&nbsp;&nbsp;So, comparing to last year’s price levels is a bit misleading in that last September’s $413 per cwt price peak was a record high, except for two weeks in May 2020 when COVID shut packing plants.&nbsp;



Among the primal cut values that make up the cutout, the primal rib is the only one climbing in value and hitting new highs for the year.&nbsp;&nbsp;The Choice primal rib value hit $667 for the week of October 2nd.&nbsp;&nbsp;The rib normally increases seasonally up to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.&nbsp;&nbsp;Most of the rest of the primal cuts, round, brisket, plate, and flank, have been declining in value as they often do seasonally.&nbsp;&nbsp;The decline in the primal flank value has been especially striking, down 27 percent compared to a year ago and 36 percent lower than its peak in June.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Where to From Here?



The Choice beef cutout tends to decline slightly in the Fall.&nbsp;&nbsp;Beef production normally increases and changing consumer purchases often result in lower prices.&nbsp;&nbsp;This Fall, continued tight beef supplies should keep the overall cutout value historically high even if we do see some seasonal declines.&nbsp;&nbsp;Given the normal seasonal pattern, it is difficult to see sharply higher cutout values boosting cattle prices.



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Recommended citation format: Anderson, David. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/10/12/little-movement-in-the-cutout/">Little Movement in the Cutout.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(42.2). October 13, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/10/12/little-movement-in-the-cutout/">permalink</a>

Little Movement in the Cutout

Authors: Authors: Adam N. Rabinowitz, Associate Professor and Extension Economist, Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University&nbsp;&nbsp;



Sthefani Oliveira, Research Associate, Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University



When planning for the crop year, farmers create budgets and form expectations of costs that will occur during the growing season. With row crop harvesting in full swing, one critical cost is piling up faster than expected with every pass of the field. Diesel fuel is the most significant consumable input during row crop harvesting. It powers the combine, tractor, cotton picker, and peanut diggers. It is also a critical input to transporting grain to the elevator, cotton to the gin, and peanuts to the buying point. Last year, farmers set budget expectations for this growing season that included fall harvest, but diesel prices across the South have since risen about 75%.&nbsp;



The United States Department of Agriculture&nbsp;Agricultural Marketing Service publishes regular estimates of #2 diesel fuel for farm use in Alabama and Oklahoma. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also publishes estimates of the retail price of #2 diesel fuel at the Gulf Coast. Figure 1 shows the price in Oklahoma at the beginning of September was $4.72 per gallon, while in Alabama it was $4.86 per gallon. Meanwhile, the retail price at the Gulf Coast was $5.75 per gallon. This was up from the average January-February 2026 price of $2.68 per gallon in Oklahoma, $2.73 per gallon in Alabama, and $3.33 per gallon at the Gulf Coast. Those early 2026 prices were the lowest observed prices in several years, concluding a relatively stable period from the fall of 2024 through February 2026. That changed in March because of the conflict with Iran and continued war between Russia and Ukraine. Prices have continued to rise since.



Focusing on the four major row crops grown throughout the South, Table 1 shows the number of acres that are expected to be harvested this fall. Roughly 32 million acres of corn, cotton, peanuts, and soybeans are expected to be harvested across the 13 southern states. We also calculated estimated diesel use during harvest, in gallons per acre, for each of these crops. Not all southern states included in the acreage numbers publish estimates of diesel use for harvest equipment. To account for this, along with variations in machinery efficiency and farms within a state, we compute an Olympic average of the diesel use from the available estimates to apply across the South.&nbsp;



The estimated diesel price increased by approximately $2.20 per gallon, based on the average of the Alabama, Oklahoma, and Gulf Coast prices and the change from January/February ($2.91/gal) to September ($5.11/gal). This represents roughly a 75% increase relative to the diesel prices producers observed during the budgeting period. As shown in the last two columns of Table 1, the harvest cost increase from the rise in diesel prices is estimated at $214 million for the four row crops discussed. This is a harvest-acreage-weighted average increase of $6.67 per acre across the South, ranging from $5.56 per acre for corn to $18.83 per acre for peanuts. The main reason peanut diesel use and cost per acre are much higher than for other crops is that peanuts require two passes for harvest. The first pass is for digging and inverting the peanuts so they may dry, while the second pass is for picking.&nbsp;



The estimates presented here should be viewed as conservative because they exclude diesel used for transporting harvested commodities, which depends upon the distance to the delivery point. Several states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Texas) have issued directives to temporarily halt enforcement of penalties for using tax-exempt off-road diesel on public roads. This can reduce the price for transporting commodities by the amount of the federal and state taxes. Meanwhile, Georgia has also suspended the state excise tax on regular gasoline and on-road diesel. At the federal level, President Trump issued an executive order on October 5 that temporarily allows the use of off-road diesel on U.S. highways in addition to deferring the federal excise tax of 24.4 cents a gallon. There is still further federal action necessary to provide forgiveness of deferred taxes.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Some might counter that the price for these crops has also increased since planting expectations were formed. While this is true, the reality is that the increase was from an extremely low price point that for many was already below cost of production. Thus, one should not see market price increases as an offset to unexpectedly high diesel prices, but instead as continued pressure on already tight margins. Margins that get squeezed even more when one considers the increases in diesel costs for post-harvest transportation necessary for marketing. For more insight on marketing of row crops, check out the Wednesday&nbsp;Southern Ag Today&nbsp;articles.&nbsp;



Figure 1. Number 2 Diesel Prices: Alabama, Oklahoma, and Gulf Coast: February 2022-September 2026



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2291" height="1356" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44931" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.1.png 2291w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.1-1024x606.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.1-768x455.png 768w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.1-1536x909.png 1536w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.42.1-2048x1212.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2291px) 100vw, 2291px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service and U.S. Energy Information Administration</figcaption></figure>



Table 1. Estimated Increase in Cost of Diesel for Harvesting Southern Row Crops



<figure class="wp-block-table has-small-font-size"><table><tbody><tr><td>Crop</td><td>Expected Harvest (1,000 acres)</td><td>Estimated Diesel Use for Harvest (gal/acre)</td><td>Harvest Cost Increase from Diesel</td><td>Cost Increase Per Acre</td></tr><tr><td>Corn (grain)</td><td>9,424</td><td>2.53</td><td>$52,438,089</td><td>&nbsp;$5.56&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>Cotton</td><td>7,540</td><td>4.38</td><td>$72,550,508</td><td>&nbsp;$9.62&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>Peanuts</td><td>1,334</td><td>8.56</td><td>$25,124,055</td><td>&nbsp;$18.83&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>Soybeans</td><td>13,785</td><td>2.11</td><td>$63,818,990</td><td>&nbsp;$4.63&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Unexpected Harvest Cost Increase</td><td>$213,931,642</td><td>&nbsp;$6.67&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Expected harvest from USDA Crop Production September 2026 report. Estimated diesel use based on enterprise budgets for Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Harvest cost increase based on average diesel increase of $2.20/gal from Jan/Feb 2026 to September 2026 across Alabama, Oklahoma, and Gulf Coast.</figcaption></figure>



References:



U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service.&nbsp;Alabama Production Cost Report (Weekly). Available at:&nbsp;<a href="https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3051">https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3051</a>



U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service.&nbsp;Oklahoma Production Cost Report (Bi-Weekly). Available at:&nbsp;<a href="https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3621">https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3621</a>



U.S. Energy Information Administration,&nbsp;Weekly Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices. Available at:



<a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R30_DPG&amp;f=W">https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R30_DPG&amp;f=W</a>



U.S. Department of Agriculture,&nbsp;Crop Production,&nbsp;Available at:



<a href="https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production">https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production</a>



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Rabinowitz, Adam, and Sthefani Oliveira. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/harvest-cost-increases-tightening-margins-for-southern-row-crop-farmers/">Harvest Cost Increases Tightening Margins for Southern Row Crop Farmers.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(42.1). October 12, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/harvest-cost-increases-tightening-margins-for-southern-row-crop-farmers/">Permalink</a>

Harvest Cost Increases Tightening Margins for Southern Row Crop Farmers

On August 25, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California issued a ruling in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=11096843034650710485&amp;q=united+farm+workers+v+department+of+labor&amp;hl=en&amp;as_sdt=3,47&amp;as_ylo=2026">United Farm Workers v. United States Department of Labor</a>, 1:25-cv-01614-KES-EGC, holding that the 2025 Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) Interim Final Rule (IFR) was unlawful under the Administrative Procedures Act (APA).



Background



On October 2, 2025, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) published an IFR altering the methodology used to calculate the AEWR for the H-2A Program. There were four key components of the new rule:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>DOL will utilize the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) survey, instead of the discontinued USDA Farm Labor Survey (FLS) as its data source for wages.</li>



<li>DOL selected five Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes that most H-2A jobs are performed under. The job duties that the worker spends most of their time performing will be used to determine which classification code and AEWR they are paid.</li>



<li>DOL created a tiered system, dividing H-2A workers into skill level I and skill level II. Each skill level will get a separate AEWR.</li>



<li>The new AEWR methodology will include an adjustment on the worker’s hourly wage for the cost of hosting provided by the employer.</li>
</ol>



Typically, under the APA, final rules must go through a notice and comment period, where the public can submit comments and the agency must consider the comments when promulgating the final rule. For the AEWR IFR, DOL utilized the “good cause” exception under the APA to bypass notice and comment rulemaking.



On November 21, 2025, the plaintiffs filed suit alleging that the IFR violated the APA because it was “arbitrary and capricious,” and DOL “failed to demonstrate good cause to bypass notice-and-comment rulemaking.”



Arbitrary and Capricious Challenge



The plaintiffs alleged that all four components of the IFR are “arbitrary and capricious” under the APA. Under the APA, an agency action is arbitrary and capricious if “the agency has relied on factors which Congress has not intended it to consider, entirely failed to consider an important aspect of the problem, offered an explanation for its decision that runs counter to evidence before the agency, or is so implausible that it could not be ascribed to a difference in view or the product of agency expertise.”<a href="#_edn1" id="_ednref1">[i]</a> The court evaluated each component separately under the arbitrary and capricious standard.



Tiered System



Historically, the DOL set the AEWR at the mean wage for all workers in a specific state or region. Within the IFR, DOL stated that “setting AEWRs at the mean would tend to overstate wages for similarly employed American agricultural workers with less experience and understate wages for similarly employed American agricultural workers with more experience.”<a href="#_edn2" id="_ednref2">[ii]</a> To remedy this, under the new tier system, DOL will set a wage for each of the five SOC codes under two tiers. The wage for a skill level I worker will be set at the 17th wage percentile for all workers and the wage for a skill level II will be set at the 50th wage percentile. DOL claims that over 90% of H-2A workers will fall under skill level I. The plaintiffs alleged that setting most H-2A wages at the 17th percentile would decrease wages below the market-based wage rate and negatively impact U.S. workers who perform the same duties, violating the statutes under the H-2A program. The court agreed with the plaintiffs, holding that while using a tier system is not necessarily unreasonable, the wage rates that DOL used under the tier system it chose are unreasonable, and arbitrary and capricious. The court held that wages under the H-2A program must not adversely affect domestic employees and the “IFR failed to reasonably consider whether its methodology could fulfill DOL’s statutory duty.”<a href="#_edn3" id="_ednref3">[iii]</a>



Housing Adjustment



Under the H-2A Program requirements, employers are required to provide free housing to their H-2A workers and any domestic workers who cannot return to their home within the same day. DOL claims that the housing requirement creates a disparity between H-2A and domestic workers. The IFR will calculate AEWRs with an adjustment in the hourly rate to account for the costs of housing provided to H-2A workers, but will not change its requirements to provide free housing to all H-2A workers and some domestic workers. The housing adjustment will be based on a forty-hour work week and the average fair market rent of a four-bedroom unit within the state. The plaintiffs claim that the housing adjustment is contrary to H-2A program requirements and violates the APA for three reasons. First, the plaintiffs argued that H-2A workers end up being less expensive for employers because of the housing adjustment, which violates the statutory requirement that utilizing H-2A workers cannot negatively impact domestic workers. Second, the plaintiffs argued that the wages set under the IFR charge workers for housing that is supposed to be provided to workers at no cost under H-2A program regulations. Third, the plaintiffs argued that a per hour adjustment for housing charges H-2A workers more than the value of the housing because most H-2A workers work more than forty hours per week. The court also agreed with the plaintiffs on this component, holding that DOL failed to show that the housing adjustment would not create wages for H-2A workers, and therefore adversely affect domestic workers.



OEWS Survey Data Source



Prior to the IFR, DOL utilized the USDA FLS as the data set to set the AEWR because it includes farm establishments in its data set. In August 2025, USDA discontinued the FLS. DOL replaced the FLS with the OEWS because the OEWS provides state or regional level data for agricultural jobs. However, the OEWS only includes data from farm contractors, not farm establishments. The plaintiffs claimed that OEWS is improper for two reasons. First, farm labor contractors only employ a minority of H-2A workers. Second, utilizing data that only includes farm labor contractors would lead to lower AEWRs because “those employed by farm labor contractors are less educated, less likely to be U.S. citizens than employees of farm establishments, and typically have substantially lower wages.”<a href="#_edn4" id="_ednref4">[iv]</a> The plaintiffs provided several alternative data sources or calculations that DOL could have used instead of the OEWR. The court held that DOL failed to consider what problems utilizing the OEWR would cause and reasonable alternatives in its rulemaking, which constitutes an arbitrary and capricious decision.



Greater than 50% Rule



Under the IFR, the worker receives the hourly AEWR for the job that they spend greater than 50% of their time doing. Under prior regulations, the worker received the hourly rate for the highest job classification they worked in no matter how much time they spent doing that job. The plaintiffs claimed that the greater than 50% rule would encourage employers to utilize many H-2A workers to perform higher wage work, instead of having employees whose primary responsibility is the higher paid work, decreasing the average wages, which would adversely affect U.S. workers performing similar work. The plaintiffs identified alternatives to the greater than 50% rule that DOL could have considered. The court agreed with the plaintiffs, holding that “failure to consider such an alternative – and failure to consider whether the greater than 50% rule is consistent with its statutory duty to protect U.S. farmworkers’ wages from the adverse effects of hiring H-2A workers – renders its decision arbitrary and capricious.”<a href="#_edn5" id="_ednref5">[v]</a>



Good Cause Challenge



The plaintiffs further allege that DOL improperly utilized the good cause exception to bypass APA notice and comment rulemaking requirements. Under the APA, notice and comment rulemaking can be bypassed if “the agency for good cause finds that notice and public procedure thereon are impracticable, unnecessary, or contrary to the public interest.”<a href="#_edn6" id="_ednref6">[vi]</a> DOL claimed that it was facing a December 31, 2025 deadline to identify a new data source and lower wages were necessary to solve an agricultural labor shortage. The court concluded that the good cause exception was properly invoked for utilizing a new data source because the prior data source, the FLS, had been discontinued and DOL was required to publish new AEWR by December 31, 2025. The court also concluded that DOL improperly invoked the good cause exception for the housing adjustment, greater than 50% rule, and tiered wage system because these three components were not tied to a December 31, 2025, deadline. Finally, the court held that DOL failed to explain why lowering wages would solve the agricultural labor shortage when H-2A visas are not statutorily capped.



Next Steps



The court held the IFR unlawful but did not vacate the rule. Instead, the court remanded the case requiring DOL to “promptly produce a new methodology for calculating AEWRs for H-2A workers that is consistent with this Order, and to promptly publish new AEWRs under that methodology.”<a href="#_edn7" id="_ednref7">[vii]</a> The court is also requiring DOL to notify all state workforce agencies, employers, and the public, within seven days of the order that employers may be required to backpay their H-2A workers. The plaintiffs asked the court to require employers to backpay H-2A workers for wages paid between the date of notice and the date a new methodology is issued. Lastly, the court is requiring both parties to brief the backpay issue once the new methodology is published. Until a new methodology is published, DOL may continue to utilize the methodology imposed under the IFR, but backpay may be awarded by the court when a new methodology that complies with the court’s order is issued.



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<a href="#_ednref1" id="_edn1">[i]</a> United Farm Workers v. United States Department of Labor, 1:25-cv-01614-KES-EGC, at *10 (E.D. Cal. Aug. 26, 2026) (citing Motor Veh, Mfrs. Ass’n v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Co., 463 U.S. 29, 43 (1983)).



<a href="#_ednref2" id="_edn2">[ii]</a> Id.at *10.



<a href="#_ednref3" id="_edn3">[iii]</a> Id. at *14.



<a href="#_ednref4" id="_edn4">[iv]</a> Id. at *17 (citing 75 Fed. Reg. at 6901).



<a href="#_ednref5" id="_edn5">[v]</a> Id. at *21.



<a href="#_ednref6" id="_edn6">[vi]</a> Id. (citing 5 U.S.C. § 553(b)(B)).



<a href="#_ednref7" id="_edn7">[vii]</a> Id. at *28.



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Recommended citation format: Capaldo, Samantha. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/federal-district-court-holds-the-2025-adverse-effect-wage-rate-interim-final-rule-unlawful/">Federal District Court Holds the 2025 Adverse Effect Wage Rate Interim Final Rule Unlawful.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(41.5). October 9, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/federal-district-court-holds-the-2025-adverse-effect-wage-rate-interim-final-rule-unlawful/">Permalink</a>

Federal District Court Holds the 2025 Adverse Effect Wage Rate Interim Final Rule Unlawful

In September 2026, the United States and China established the U.S.-China Board of Trade, creating a framework through which government officials can discuss trade issues and oversee trade initiatives between the two countries. Announced during the recent state visit by President Xi Jinping, the Board is intended to provide a regular forum for addressing trade concerns and exploring areas of mutual commercial interest (The White House, 2026). Unlike traditional trade agreements, which typically involve comprehensive negotiations and formal legislative approval, the Board functions as an executive-level arrangement through which officials can meet, exchange proposals, and consider targeted trade initiatives.



The Board’s first major initiative is the 30-for-30 Framework, announced on September 27, 2026. Under this arrangement, officials from both countries identified reciprocal lists of products representing approximately $30 billion in annual bilateral trade value on each side, with a view toward providing more favorable tariff and regulatory treatment. In simple terms, the framework seeks to expand trade in selected products rather than negotiate a broad trade agreement covering entire sectors of the economy. Whether the initiative ultimately leads to substantial increases in bilateral trade remains uncertain, but it establishes a process through which products may be considered for reduced trade barriers (Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2026).



How will agriculture fare under the 30-for-30 Framework? China has historically been one of the most important foreign markets for U.S. agricultural products, yet trade was significantly disrupted by the tariffs and trade tensions that emerged in recent years. U.S. agricultural exports to China approached $40 billion in 2022 but declined to approximately $8 billion by 2025 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2026). Given this decline, the inclusion of agricultural commodities among the products identified for possible tariff relief has attracted considerable attention.



At this stage, any assessment of the framework’s implications for agriculture is necessarily speculative. The arrangement remains a work in progress, and future tariff reductions, product coverage, and implementation details will continue to be shaped by ongoing discussions between the two countries. As a result, it is too early to determine how the framework may ultimately affect agricultural trade. Nevertheless, the product list proposed by the Chinese government may provide some initial insight into the sectors viewed as potential areas for expanded trade.



Table 1 provides a broad overview of the products included in China&#8217;s proposed import list under the 30-for-30 Framework. Based on the more than 1,600 tariff lines identified in the translated schedule (Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2026), the list appears to be heavily concentrated in food and agricultural products, which account for an estimated 83% of all tariff lines. Forestry products represent approximately 10%, while medical equipment, fibers, and other industrial products comprise relatively small shares. Among individual chapters, live animals, processed fruits and vegetables, wood products, oilseeds and seeds, vegetables, fish and seafood, fruits and nuts, and meats account for the largest number of tariff lines. These estimates should be interpreted with caution because the final product coverage may change. Even so, the composition of the proposed list suggests that agriculture and related sectors are likely to play a central role in any future expansion of U.S.-China trade under the framework.



Table 1. Composition of China’s Proposed 30-for-30 Import List by Broad Sector



<figure class="wp-block-table has-small-font-size"><table><tbody><tr><td>Sector</td><td>Tariff lines</td><td>Share of tariff lines (%)</td></tr><tr><td>All Products (total tariff lines)</td><td>1,619</td><td>100.0</td></tr><tr><td>Food and Agriculture (HS 01 to 24)</td><td>1,341</td><td>82.8</td></tr><tr><td>Forestry (HS 44 to 46)</td><td>162</td><td>10.0</td></tr><tr><td>Fibers (HS 50 to 53)</td><td>40</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr><td>Medical Equipment (HS 90+)</td><td>48</td><td>3.0</td></tr><tr><td>Other Industrial Products</td><td>28</td><td>1.7</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Note: Food and Agriculture is defined according to the World Trade Organization. HS is the Harmonized System Chapters. Estimates are based on the translated product list provided by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2026</figcaption></figure>



References



Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. 2026. Ambassador Greer Issues a Statement on Announcement of Recommendations from the U.S.-China Board of Trade. Press Releases (September 27, 2026). <a href="https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/september/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-announcement-recommendations-us-china-board-trade">https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/september/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-announcement-recommendations-us-china-board-trade</a>



U.S. Department of Agriculture. 2026. Global Agricultural Trade System. Foreign Agricultural Service. <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/Default.aspx">https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/Default.aspx</a>.



The White House. 2026. U.S.-China Board of Trade. Releases (September 27, 2026). <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/09/u-s-china-board-of-trade/">https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/09/u-s-china-board-of-trade/</a>



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Muhammad, Andrew. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/what-the-u-s-china-board-of-trade-could-mean-for-american-agriculture/">What the U.S.-China Board of Trade Could Mean for American Agriculture.</a>&#8220; Southern Ag Today 6(41.4). October 8, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/what-the-u-s-china-board-of-trade-could-mean-for-american-agriculture/">Permalink</a>

What the U.S.-China Board of Trade Could Mean for American Agriculture

Authors: Julio Bellodi Cortarelli and Grant Gardner 



Every year, producers face the same question: when should I price the new crop? Price too early and a summer weather rally can leave you watching prices climb with regret. Wait, and the rally may never come. So, when during the year do good pre-harvest pricing opportunities tend to show up?



In this article, we analyze daily settlement prices (CME Group) for December corn futures&nbsp;across 35 contract years (1990-2024) and November soybean futures across 32 (1993-2024), tracking&nbsp;each contract through the final year of its life, from the day the prior year’s contract expired (the roll) to the day it expired itself. The soybean series starts later because 1993 is the first year in our data with a complete contract of daily prices.&nbsp;We define a good marketing day as any day the price closed in the top quarter of that contract year&#8217;s prices. The hit rate is the percentage of each month&#8217;s trading days that were good marketing days, adjusted for the differing number of trading days in a month. If good days were spread evenly across the year, every month would sit near 25%.



On average, corn shows a clear pattern (Figure 1). Every month from the December roll through June averages a hit rate at or above 28%, and then the rate falls away: 21% in July, 13% in August, and 12% in September. Soybeans are flatter: every month averages between 20% and 31%, and no month stands out. In both crops, however, the vertical lines matter more than the bars.&nbsp;&nbsp;Every month’s range reaches zero, so even the best months deliver almost nothing in some years, and most months have also topped 80% of their days in their best years. Corn’s late summer is the exception on the upside: even its strongest years rarely pushed August above 40%.



Figure 1 may not line up with intuition. Most producers can remember a year when the best prices showed up in a summer weather rally, and seasonal price averages back that memory up (Maples and Gardner, 2023).&nbsp;Rally years happen, but most years are not rally years, and the average reflects that. What separates one kind of year from another is the balance sheet.&nbsp;&nbsp;When we cut the data into three groups by the marketing year’s final stocks-to-use ratio (ending stocks divided by total use, USDA Economic Research Service), the good marketing days land in a different part of the year for each group (Figure 2).



In tight-stocks years, both crops behave the same way: the good days come at harvest and after. Corn’s harvest window runs a 38% hit rate and soybeans 43%, well above the 25% benchmark, while the winter months in both crops fall well below it.



In average years, the crops part ways. Corn’s opportunities shift to the winter window while its harvest hit rate collapses to 7%. Soybeans instead concentrate in the growing season, the&nbsp;classic weather-market year.



In comfortable years, the good days come earliest. Corn’s good days sit&nbsp;in winter, with a second window during the growing season, and soybeans move almost entirely to winter. Harvest offers little in either crop: a 1% hit rate in corn and 12% in soybeans.



For corn, the lesson is a threshold: waiting for harvest paid off only when stocks were tight. For soybeans, it is a slide: as supplies build, the good days move from harvest to the growing season to winter. In these years, tight meant ending stocks near 9% of annual use for corn and 6% for soybeans; comfortable meant roughly double that. Producers never see the final number in advance, but USDA publishes a running projection each month in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report; the September WASDE puts 2026/27 near 10% for corn and 7% for soybeans.



These patterns matter now because the balance sheet is tightening. After running above its recent norm from 2023 through 2025, stocks-to-use projections for 2026/27 are just below normal for both crops, which puts the year in our average group. In average years the opportunities have come early: corn’s good days concentrated in the winter window and soybeans’ in the growing season. For the 2027 crop, that pattern points to the months just ahead: December through March for corn and the spring and summer months for soybeans, so long as the balance sheet stays near its current range. If supplies tighten further, history says the harvest window comes back into play.



Still, no single month can be counted on. The range lines in Figure 1 show the same month delivering almost no good days in one year and nearly all of them in another. Stocks shift the odds, but they do not remove the risk. These windows tell producers when to pay attention; production costs, expected yield, and insurance coverage tell them when to act.



Figure 1. Average good marketing day hit rate by contract month, December corn and November soybean futures. Bars show the percentage of each month’s own trading days that closed at or above the contract year’s 75th percentile price, averaged across contract years. The dashed line marks the 25% benchmark expected if the calendar did not matter; vertical lines show the 10th–90th percentile range across years. Months marked * and + are the partial months just after the roll and just before expiration, about 10 trading days each. Source: CME December Corn and November Soybean Futures.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1521" height="1109" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44918" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-1.png 1521w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-1-1024x747.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-1-768x560.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1521px) 100vw, 1521px" /></figure>



Figure 2. Average good marketing day hit rate by marketing window and stocks-to-use category. Contract years are sorted into thirds by ending stocks-to-use relative to its own 11-year median. Windows for corn: winter (Dec–Mar), growing season (Apr–Jul), harvest (Aug–Dec); for soybeans: winter (Nov–Mar), growing season (Apr–Aug), harvest (Sep–Nov). The dashed line marks the 25% benchmark. Source: CME futures; USDA ERS Feed Grains and Oil Crops Yearbooks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1362" height="1054" src="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-44919" srcset="https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-2.png 1362w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-2-1024x792.png 1024w, https://southernagtoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/6.41.3-2-768x594.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1362px) 100vw, 1362px" /></figure>



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REFERENCES



CME Group. December Corn Futures (1990–2024) and November Soybean Futures (1993–2024), daily settlement prices.



Maples, W.E., and G. Gardner. “Using Historical Price Movements to Inform Marketing Decisions.” Southern Ag Today 3(51.1), December 18, 2023. https://southernagtoday.org/2023/12/18/using-historical-price-movements-to-inform-marketing-decisions/



USDA Economic Research Service. Feed Grains Yearbook and Oil Crops Yearbook (ending stocks-to-use).



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Recommended citation format: Cortarelli, Julio Bellodi, and Grant Gardner. &#8221; <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/irrigation-footprints-across-the-southern-region/">Corn and Soybeans: Is There a Best Month to Price New Crop?</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(41.3). October 7, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/09/29/irrigation-footprints-across-the-southern-region/">Permalink</a>

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