Recent reports from USDA provide insight into the supply prospects for the 2024 winter wheat crop. The Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings publication on January 12, 2024, showed U.S. farmers planted 34.425 million acres of winter wheat for 2024, down about 6 percent from the 36.699 million planted for 2023. This is still the second-highest winter wheat seedings number in the last eight years. Texas planted 5.9 million acres compared to 6.4 million last year; Oklahoma planted 4.3 million compared to 4.6 million. Kansas, the top winter wheat producing state in the nation, planted 7.5 million acres for 2024, down from 8.1 million last year.
Winter wheat crop condition ratings are well above last year, raising prospects for better winter wheat yields and a better harvested-to-planted ratio in 2024 compared to 2023. The last USDA report available for the U.S. and specific states was November 26. Kansas updated its wheat crop condition ratings on December 31. The USDA has since suspended weekly crop condition rating reports until the first of April.
Over the last three years, the average harvested-to-planted percentage for winter wheat is about 71 percent. With a trendline yield of about 51 bushels per acre and 34.425 million planted acres, an early estimate of 2024 winter wheat production is 1.246 billion bushels, around last year’s production and a little lower than the 10-year average production. Winter wheat production in 2023 was 1.248 billion bushels. The 10-year average production level is 1.286 billion bushels. A higher expected yield and harvested-to-plated ratio are expected to compensate for this season’s lower acreage.
References
USDA, NASS Crop Progress, November 27, 2023 and January 2, 2024
USDA, NASS Quickstats, accessed January 17, 2024.
USDA, NASS Small Grains Summary, September 30, 2023
USDA, NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings, January 12, 2024
Welch, J. Mark. “2024 Winter Wheat Production Prospects.” Southern Ag Today 4(4.1). January 22, 2024. Permalink
