The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its annual Prospective Plantings report on March 28, 2024. This report typically isn’t as exciting as college basketball’s March Madness, but the Prospective Plantings report does supply estimates of acreage that affects the agricultural markets and provides the basis for numerous discussions for the upcoming growing season.
What does the 2024 Prospective Plantings report show for the Southern Ag Today States? The following tables show the prospective planting acreage for the Southeastern states, with the 2023 planted acres and the predicted 2024 acres (and 2024 acres as a percentage of the 2023 acres). The states are listed in rank from most to least 2024 acres.
Table 1 indicates the corn acres that are projected for the Southeastern states. Oklahoma is the only southern state that shows an increase in 2024 corn acres while Arkansas and Mississippi are predicted to plant about 25% fewer acres. While the Southeastern states are expected to plant about 10% of the U.S. corn acres, this is 27.67% of the reduction in U.S.2024 corn acres. While some of the lost corn acres in the Southeast are shifted to soybean and cotton, there are some acres that are not reflected in the 2024 major crop plantings.
Overall, the U.S. is predicted to plant 90 million acres in 2024. This is five percent lower than 2023 acres and slightly lower than industry expectations, resulting in a sixteen-cent rally for December 2024 corn futures prices.
| Table 1. 2023 Acres and Prospective Plantings for 2024, Corn (1,000 acres) | |||
2023 | 2024 Prospective | ||
| Acres | % of 2023 | ||
| Texas | 2,500 | 2,100 | 84 |
| Kentucky | 1,600 | 1,550 | 97 |
| Tennessee | 940 | 930 | 99 |
| N. Carolina | 950 | 890 | 94 |
| Arkansas | 850 | 620 | 73 |
| Mississippi | 790 | 590 | 75 |
| Louisiana | 700 | 560 | 80 |
| Virginia | 495 | 470 | 95 |
| Georgia | 485 | 410 | 85 |
| Oklahoma | 390 | 400 | 103 |
| Alabama | 330 | 310 | 94 |
| S. Carolina | 365 | 300 | 82 |
| Florida | 90 | 80 | 89 |
| U.S. | 94,641 | 90,036 | 95 |
Upland Cotton prospective plantings are included in Table 2. U.S. Cotton acres are expected to be four percent higher than in 2023. Half of the Southeastern states have double-digit percentage increases, and the remaining states are near the previous year’s cotton acres.
| Table 2. 2023 Acres and Prospective Plantings for 2024, Upland Cotton (1,000 acres) | |||
2023 | 2024 Prospective | ||
| Acres | % of 2023 | ||
| Texas | 5,550 | 5,500 | 99 |
| Georgia | 1,110 | 1,100 | 99 |
| Arkansas | 510 | 540 | 106 |
| Mississippi | 400 | 500 | 125 |
| Oklahoma | 420 | 500 | 119 |
| Alabama | 380 | 430 | 113 |
| N. Carolina | 380 | 390 | 103 |
| Tennessee | 265 | 300 | 113 |
| S. Carolina | 210 | 240 | 114 |
| Louisiana | 120 | 140 | 117 |
| Florida | 89 | 90 | 101 |
| Virginia | 81 | 80 | 99 |
| U.S. | 10,083 | 10,470 | 104 |
Peanut acres are shown in Table 3. Overall, peanut acres across the nation are predicted to remain the same as in 2023. South Carolina and Mississippi have the highest percentage increase in acres, while Texas and Virginia have largest percentage peanut decrease in acres.
| Table 3. 2023 Acres and Prospective Plantings for 2024, Peanut (1,000 acres) | |||
2023 | 2024 Prospective | ||
| Acres | % of 2023 | ||
| Georgia | 775 | 820 | 106 |
| Alabama | 175 | 180 | 103 |
| Florida | 160 | 170 | 106 |
| Texas | 225 | 160 | 71 |
| N. Carolina | 124 | 120 | 97 |
| S. Carolina | 77 | 85 | 110 |
| Arkansas | 35 | 35 | 100 |
| Virginia | 29 | 24 | 83 |
| Mississippi | 18 | 20 | 111 |
| Oklahoma | 16 | 15 | 94 |
| U.S. | 1,645 | 1,651 | 100 |
Table 4 illustrates that soybean acres for 2024 is up three percent in the U.S. Oklahoma has the largest increase in predicted acres, with Texas losing the largest percentage of acres in 2024.
| Table 4. 2023 Acres and Prospective Plantings for 2024, Soybean (1,000 acres) | |||
| 2023 | 2024 Prospective | ||
| Acres | % of 2023 | ||
| Arkansas | 2,980 | 3,100 | 104 |
| Mississippi | 2,180 | 2,250 | 103 |
| Kentucky | 1,830 | 1,950 | 107 |
| N. Carolina | 1,640 | 1,650 | 101 |
| Tennessee | 1,600 | 1,650 | 103 |
| Louisiana | 1,030 | 1,150 | 112 |
| Virginia | 580 | 630 | 109 |
| Oklahoma | 460 | 550 | 120 |
| S. Carolina | 395 | 350 | 89 |
| Alabama | 350 | 320 | 91 |
| Georgia | 160 | 160 | 100 |
| Texas | 125 | 100 | 80 |
| U.S. | 83,600 | 86,510 | 103 |
It should be noted that that these are only intended plantings, and the actual acreage will vary from these estimates. Weather, commodity prices, input prices, and availability will have an impact on the acres that get planted.
Source: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/x633f100h/31980870j/fj237r16t/pspl0324.pdf
Runge, Max. “2024 Prospective Plantings for Southern Ag Today States.” Southern Ag Today 4(15.3). April 10, 2024. Permalink
