USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on June 12th. This report follows the first set of estimates for the 2024/2025 crop marketing year that were released in May. This month’s report continues to use the March Prospective Plantings report as the basis for estimated acreage. As a result, there were no changes to the production or price projections for most crops, with wheat and cotton the exceptions as shown in table 1.
Table 1: WASDE Estimated and Projected Prices 5 by Crop and Marketing Year
Cotton’s 2024/2025 marketing year average price is a projected $0.70/lb., which represents a $0.04/lb. decrease from last month’s projection. This change was driven by a 0.45 milllion bale increase in the estimated cotton stocks at the start of the marketing year, bringing estimated stocks up to 2.85 million bales. The revision to beginning stocks was due to a halfmillion bale reduction in expected U.S. cotton exports during the 2023/2024 marketing year. While global demand for cotton remains strong, U.S. cotton export sales have been slower than expected amid tight supplies, and Brazil is expected to overtake the U.S. as the top cotton exporter for 2023/2024. If realized, this would mark the first time since the 1992/1993 marketing year that the U.S. would not be the world’s top cotton exporter. As a result of reduced exports, U.S. cotton stocks are projected to increase to 4.1 million bales at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year.
On the other hand, the projected 2024/2025 marketing year U.S. wheat price increased by $0.50 to $6.50/bu. This price increase is due to a 25 million bushel increase in projected exports this coming marketing year, in spite of a slight increase in projected U.S. wheat yields and soft harvest-time prices in the United States. The increase in U.S. exports follows a 1% decrease in projected global wheat production because of yield reductions for major wheat exporters Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. The decreased global yield projections were driven by dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, late-season frosts in Russia, and excessive precipitation in France.
Looking ahead, we should expect to see more significant changes in next month’s WASDE report. On June 28th, USDA is scheduled to release the Acreage report, which will likely result in adjustments to acreage planted and harvested estimates for most row crops. These updated acreage estimates will affect projected production and be taken into account in the July WASDE report.
References
Biram, Hunter, and Ryan Loy. “May WASDE Projects Higher Supplies and Lower Prices Again in 2024.” Southern Ag Today 4(20.1). May 13, 2024. Available at: http://southernagtoday.org/may-wasde-projects-higher-supplies-and-lower-prices-again-in-2024/
USDA-NASS. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. June 12, 2024. Available at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0624.pdf
USDA-FAS. Cotton: World Markets and Trade. June 12, 2024. Available at: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/kp78gg36g/xk81m8188/xs55p371r/Cotton.pdf
Sawadgo, Wendiam. “June WASDE Report Projects Increases to Wheat Prices, Decreases to Cotton Prices.” Southern Ag Today 4(25.1). June 17, 2024. Permalink
