USDA NASS has released the equivalent of college football’s pre-season poll, which is the August Crop Production report (released August 12). The Crop Production report provides an estimate of acreage, area harvested, yields, and production for the major row crops in the U.S. Additional crop production reports (polls) will be released in September, October, and November. The Annual Crop Production report (final poll) will be released in January.
For the states represented in the Southern Ag Today area, estimates for cotton yields garner a lot of attention. How accurate are these August estimates to actual yields? Table 1 shows the actual five-year average (2019 – 2023) annual cotton yield compared to the five-year average of the August yield projection.
Table 1. Annual Cotton yield vs. August estimates yields (5-year averages)
There is a range in the percent difference in the actual yields versus the August estimates. The actual five-year average ranges from 17.43 percent below the five-year estimated August yield (Florida) to just over 8 percent higher than the August estimate (Tennessee).
Like pre-season polls, the estimated yields can vary from the actual annual yield for numerous reasons. Wind and excess rain from tropical weather events cause the largest decline in yields from the August estimate to the actual yields. While we won’t know for several months what our actual yields are (or our favorite team’s record), the pre-season projections provide some insight.
Reference: USDA NASS Crop Production
Runge, Max. “Are the Pre-Season Polls (Crop Production Reports) Accurate?” Southern Ag Today 4(35.3). August 28, 2024. Permalink
