Dairy cow slaughter rebounded sharply in the two weeks after the holiday shortened fourth of July week. It’s pretty normal for dairy cow slaughter to climb seasonally after early July but, the magnitude of this weekly increase is larger than usual. Even with the rebound in culling, weekly slaughter remained smaller than last year and the average of the last 5 years. The trend of smaller dairy cow culling is likely to continue the rest of the year, even though culling may increase seasonally.
Over the last 8 weeks dairy cow culling is 18 percent smaller compared to the same time period last year. Dairy cow slaughter is reported by region. Region 4 (Southeastern states), region 6 (Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana), and region 3 (Virginia and Pennsylvania) include Southern states. Dairy cow slaughter in regions 3 and 4 are down 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Slaughter in region 6 is down 32 percent. Regional differences in slaughter rates continue to indicate shifts in regional milk production with faster than average culling rates in the South but slower culling in the Southern Plains. On an interesting note, region 8, which includes Colorado and the Dakotas, has reported larger dairy cow slaughter this year than last year and is the only region to do so. Dairy cow culling is likely to remain relatively low in coming months due to fewer dairy cows in total, relatively few replacement heifers, and rising milk prices.
The overall decline in dairy cow slaughter is further supporting cull cow prices across the South and the country. Dairy cow slaughter has made up, on average, about 48.6 percent of all cow slaughter over the last decade. This year dairy cow slaughter represents 48.3 percent of all cow slaughter. Reduced dairy cow culling coinciding with reduced beef cow slaughter is further cutting supplies of lean beef. Wholesale boneless 90 percent lean beef hit a new high of $3.76 per pound last week. The cow-beef cutout is in record territory at over $290 per cwt. Lean slaughter cows at auction continue to hover around $125 per cwt. The lack of dairy replacements and need for replacements by some has bred dairy cow and heifer prices up from $300 to $600 per head in Kentucky dairy auctions.
Overall, reduced dairy cow culling is supporting cull cow prices. Reduced total cow culling is putting additional strain on cow packing plants across the region.
Anderson, David. “Dairy Cow Slaughter Posts Strong Rebound.” Southern Ag Today 4(32.2). August 6, 2024. Permalink
