We are six weeks away from 2024 Thanksgiving but it’s not too early to think about the meals that may include turkey. Here is some pertinent turkey information as we are preparing for the end of the year celebrations. One of the first considerations is production, a key part of turkey supplies. The 2024 federally inspected turkey production (weekly), is shown in Figure 1. Year to date, turkey production is running 3.29% below 2023 levels and 6.44% less than the five-year average (2018 – 2022). While lower production is usually a cause for price concerns, that is not likely to be the case this year as turkey prices have remained lower than 2023 throughout 2024.
Turkey in storage is another important consideration in turkey supplies for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. As seen in the in Figure 1, turkey processing occurs throughout the year with an increase in late October and early November. Cold storage is important in managing the supply of turkeys and to ensure that adequate supplies are available for the end of the year demand. Figure 2 indicates that all turkey in cold storage for 2024 is 2.1 percent higher than in 2023, but 8.9 percent less than the 2018 -2022 average. Digging a little deeper in the cold storage data indicates that while there are 1.1 percent fewer tom turkeys, whole hens in cold storage are up 4.4 percent.
With 2024 turkey production running only slightly lower than last year’s production and quantities of frozen turkey in cold storage above 2023 levels, what will that mean for turkey prices in 2024? The 2024 fourth quarter wholesale price projection for an 8 – 16 pound frozen turkey hen is forecast to be $0.95 cents per pound, wholesale. This is 5.75 % less than 2023 prices ($1.01) and 47% less than fourth quarter prices ($1.78 ) in 2022. Like usual, there will be plenty of turkeys for Thanksgiving dinner. But, you might look for deals and specials and shop early to make sure you get just the right bird for your holiday table. In conclusion, it’s looks to be a good year to enjoy turkeys for the holidays.
