The pecan is one of the most eaten fruit nuts in the USA, with a per capita consumption that increased in the past decade from 0.35 lbs. (2012) to 0.61 lbs. in 2021 due to its nutritional value and improved marketing strategies (USDA, NASS, 2024). Prior to the 2024 hurricane season, there was an 8% decrease in the production of the improved variety of pecan in 2023 compared to 2022 (USDA, NASS, 2024). Georgia, the established number one pecan producing state (USDA, 2019) was badly hit by Hurricane Helene in September 2024, which affected both production areas, crop loss, and tree loss concomitantly (Sawyer, 2024). Reports show that the state of Georgia suffered a loss of 36 million pounds, an estimated 75% pecan crop loss which is estimated at $6.46 billion loss to the Georgia Pecan Industry due to Hurricane Helene (Flood, 2024). With such a huge volume disappearing from the total production, both consumption and future production will be impacted.
Pecans have many health benefits (Royalty, 2024) and multifaceted uses including eating it raw or fresh as a snack, baking, salads, and cooking exotic cuisines such as pecan-crusted chicken, lamb, fish, and the famous pecan pie, etc.
Pecans have a key spot in the festive season. Decreased production area, crop loss, and tree loss translate into an immediate shortage in the domestic and export markets, respectively.
Consequently, consumers should expect higher pecan prices during the upcoming holidays and festive season. For instance, early-season pecan halves prices were $7 to $8 per pound this year, compared to $4.50 to $5.50 per pound last year (Haire, 2024). Moreover, the industry will also experience a long-term shortage due to the number of trees that were knocked down, losing about 36 million pounds, equivalent to 48,000 acres, with an estimated value of $6.46 billion loss to the entire Georgia Pecan Industry. Despite the USDA, ERS (2024) preliminary ending stock of slightly over 70 million pounds shelled, and the anticipated decrease per capita consumption of 0.51 pounds in 2024 compared to 0.67 pounds in the 2022/2023 crop season, the huge production decrease from Georgia due to Hurricane Helene will be felt in the pocketbook of pecan lovers and consumers this and next year. In addition, the injuries sustained by surviving trees will require time to fully recover, thus putting upward pressure on consumer prices due to persistent shortages (Towfighi, 2024; Haire, 2024).
With the US 2023 population of 334.9 million, the USDA, ERS (2024) preliminary domestic availability of 171 million pounds will be difficult to achieve and place upward pressure on prices paid for pecans across the pecan market value chain.
References
Flood, E. (2024). Pecan Farmers Suffer Devastating blow from Hurricane Helene. Agriculture Dive News, Online: https://www.agriculturedive.com/news/hurricane-helene-pecan-farm-crop-damage/729603/ Accessed December 1, 2024.
Haire, B. (2024). “Pecan farmers see high prices for meager crop”. CAES Newswire, College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, UGA Cooperative Extension. Online: https://newswire.caes.uga.edu/story/2143/pecan-prices.html (November 04). Accessed December 5, 2024.
Royalty Pecan Farms (2024). “The Power of the Pecan: 7 Health Benefits That Make This The Best Nut on Earth” Online: https://royaltypecans.com/pages/the-power-of-the-pecan-7-health-benefits-pecans , Accessed December 5, 2024.
Sawyer, A. (2024). Southeast Georgia Pecan Damage from Hurricane Helene. University of Georgia (UGA), Pecan Extension, CAES. Online: https://site.extension.uga.edu/pecan/2024/10/southeast-georgia-pecan-damage-from-hurricane-helene/ (October 10). Accessed December 1, 2024.
Towfighi, J. (2024). “Hurricane Helene devastated Georgia’s pecan harvest. Farmers are on the brink”. CNN Business, online: https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/09/business/hurricane-helene-impact-georgia-pecan-farmers/index.html (November 09). Accessed December 5, 2024.
USDA/ERS (2019). Pecan Production. National Agricultural Statistics Service. Online: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/fruit-and-tree-nuts/ Accessed December 1, 2024.
USDA, NASS (2024). Pecan Production. Agricultural Statistics Board, ISSN: 2640-0014. Online: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/5425kg32f/nv936p236/00001m546/pecnpr24.pdf Accessed December 1, 2024.
USDA, ERS (2024). “Pecans: Supply and Availability (Shelled basis), 1980/81 to date”. Online: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/fruit-and-tree-nuts-data/fruit-and-tree-nuts-yearbook-tables/ Accessed December 5, 2024.
Fonsah, Esendugue Greg. “Preparing Consumers for Anticipated Soaring Pecan Prices During Holiday Season.” Southern Ag Today 4(50.5). December 13, 2024. Permalink
