This Friday brings the next USDA Cattle on Feed (COF) report. The March 21st report will include data for February and the number on feed as of March 1st. This report comes amid cattle market price volatility and declining fed cattle prices throughout February.
There are three big numbers in the COF report: marketings, placements, and COF. Last year was leap year so there was one less working day in February 2025 compared to last year. Marketings should be about 8 percent smaller than last year. Some of that comes from one less day in the month but, it is also indicative of smaller slaughter rates in February. Placements are expected to be more than 10 percent smaller than last year. One factor is that feeder cattle imported from Mexico only just began to trickle in during the first week of the month. Sharply fewer cattle were reported in the CME feeder cattle index compared to a year ago. Fewer feeder cattle available should be taking its toll on placements. Any slowdown in heifer placements will further cut numbers. Finally, feedlot placements in February 2024 were very large so, normally, smaller February placements will look like a big percentage change from a year ago. That leaves the number of cattle in feedlots more than 1 percent smaller than last year. Some sharp reductions in feedlot supplies have to come sooner or later given the cow herd. This report may provide some evidence of supply contractions.
From January 30th to March 6th the 5-market fed cattle weighted average steer price declined from $210.10 to $195.00 per cwt. (the 5-market average price was back over $200 per cwt at the time of this writing). Falling fed cattle prices certainly contributed to lower feeder prices during February. Falling fed cattle cash prices and futures prices may have cut some placements too. February and early March saw swings of about $50 per cwt., down and back up, in 400-500 pounds steer prices. The weekly average Choice boxed beef cutout declined about $15 per cwt over the same time period. Fed cattle weights continue to be heavier than last year, supporting beef production even though feedlot marketings are fewer than last year.
On balance, it’s going to be an interesting report if the number of cattle on feed declines close to 2 percent. The tighter supplies will provide more support for higher prices but, also some more opportunity for price volatility.
Anderson, David. “COF Report Amid Declining Prices.” Southern Ag Today 5(12.2). March 18, 2025. Permalink
