The February WASDE included an updated U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 (third column of numbers in the table below), with very minor month-over-month adjustments. The supply side variables were unchanged from January, as were projected U.S. exports. U.S. domestic use was cut 100,000 bales, which went straight to the bottom line of 100,000 additional ending stocks compared to last month. This leaves U.S. ending stocks at a more bearish 4.9 million bales.
It is not surprising that the USDA left U.S. production unchanged from their January forecast. As the ginning season winds down, cotton has two reliable measures to forecast production: 1) a count of actual physical bales (“running bales”) that are classed for fiber quality, and 2) a survey of running bales ginned. Actual physical bales vary in weight but are around 500 pounds. On the other hand, USDA-NASS cotton production forecasts and WASDE numbers are expressed in 480 pound “statistical bales.” For conversion purposes, I assume a conversion factor of 1.02755 statistical bales for one running bale.
For the week ending February 6, USDA-AMS classing accounted for 13,855,096 running bales classed (or 14,236,804 statistical bales, about 99% of USDA-NASS’s production forecast). As of February 1, USDA-NASS also forecasted 13,961,700 running bales ginned (or 14,346,345 statistical bales, within about 60,000 bales of USDA-NASS’s production forecast). So, the end of the 2024 crop processing is in sight, if not here, although they may sit on it until the final classing and ginning reports (typically in May). I don’t think there are any market changing surprises left on the production side that would affect prices moving forward.
Robinson, John. “Late Season Indicators for 2024/25 U.S. Cotton Production.” Southern Ag Today 5(9.3). February 26, 2025. Permalink
