USDA released its August Cattle on Feed report on Friday, August 22nd. While the easy headline numbers were that 1.6 percent fewer cattle were on feed from 4 percent fewer marketings and 6.1 percent fewer placements, the level of placements leave a few questions.
The decline in placements was not quite as large as the average pre-report estimate expected. July’s 6.1 percent decline in placements compared to last July amounted to 104,000 head. Feeder cattle imports from Mexico were about 128,000 head fewer than last July. So, if the border had been open, not considering any other events, placements might have been larger than last year.
For the year through July, placements are 5.2 percent smaller than last year, or 643,000 head. Through July, about 628,000 fewer feeder cattle have been imported from Mexico than in 2024. Almost all the decline in placements this year can be attributed to the border closure. It is a bit surprising that domestic placements are not lower, given the smaller calf crops. There are a couple of assumptions in this worth remembering. While imported Mexican feeder cattle do eventually go to feedyards, they may graze pastures and rangeland prior to placement, which might create some timing issues. It’s likely that if the border had been open this year that imports would have lagged behind 2024’s fast pace.
So, where are we finding all these domestic, U.S. produced feeders to place in feedlots? One answer could be that high calf prices are encouraging producers to sell now, pulling feeder cattle placements ahead. It may also be that some producers are continuing to sell heifers. The decision between selling now at record prices or counting on future returns may still favor selling now for some producers.
One consideration is that selling and placing those feeders early may squeeze the supply of stocker cattle for winter grazing later this Fall. Recent rains in some wheat pasture areas might suggest the opportunity for grazing, but there may be fewer available stockers.
Anderson, David, and Josh Maples. “Fewer Cattle on Feed But, Some Questions.” Southern Ag Today 5(35.2). August 26, 2025. Permalink
