The world wheat situation for the 2025 crop was dominated by overall favorable growing conditions. According to the December 2025 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), world wheat production continued a long-term increasing trend, reaching a record of 837.81 million metric tons, about 31 billion bushels. In the U.S., the average wheat yield for the 2025 crop also continued a long-term increasing trend to a record high 53.3 bushels per acre, beating the old record of 52.7 bushels in 2016.
With record production and yield, what do supply and demand fundamentals in the wheat market portend for price expectations in 2026?
For the U.S., wheat planted area has levelled off over the last few years to around 45 million acres. Last winter was under the influence of an El Niño weather pattern, generally associated with cooler temperatures and above normal precipitation in the Southern Plains (2016 was an El Niño year, too). The forecast for the winter of 2026 is for La Niña conditions to be present. La Niña winters are generally warmer and drier than normal. That is not a favorable forecast for above normal yields. With little change in acreage, the U.S. wheat crop in 2026 is likely to be smaller than 2025.
U.S. wheat domestic use is little changed over the last 20 years (Figure 1). Food use is right around 950 million bushels per year, varying no more than 59 million bushels since 2005/2006. Wheat for feed averages about 135 million bushels per year. The high in feed use (360 million bushels) came in 2012 with the major drought in the Corn Belt.
Figure 1. U.S. Wheat Use
That leaves exports. On average, exports and food use are about even over the last 20 years, but the range in exports is much more variable, from a high of 1.3 billion bushels to a low of 707 million. There is significant competition in the export market for wheat, even though the U.S. is one of the top exporters in the world (Figure 2).
Figure 2. World Wheat Exports
World consumption and production outside of the major exporting countries (Argentina, Australia, European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.) shows a production deficit every year since 1990 (Figure 3). That deficit has widened from about 70 million metric tons per year in the early 1990s to more than double, averaging over 160 million metric tons the last three years. The rate of deficit is increasing by about 3 million metric tons per year, providing a need for imports to those areas.
Figure 3. Production and Domestic Consumption of Wheat: world less major exporters
The price outlook for wheat in 2026 looks better than 2025 based on what will likely be a smaller U.S. wheat crop. But the real question will be production levels globally, especially among our major export competitors. Meanwhile, consumption of wheat is strong. In 1990, the population in countries outside Argentina, Australia, the EU, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. represented 82% of the population total (IMF, 2025), and per capita consumption of wheat in these ‘rest of the world’ countries was 75.6 kilograms per person year. In 2025, the population share of these ‘rest of the world’ countries increased to 87% of global population, and per capita consumption increased to 85.6 kilograms per person per year. The world is hungry for wheat.
References
International Monetary Fund. IMF Datamapper, accessed December 12, 2025, https://www.imf.org/en/home.
USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, PSD, accessed December 10, 2025.
USDA, Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 2025.
Welch, Mark. “2026 Wheat Outlook.” Southern Ag Today 5(51.3). December 17, 2025. Permalink
