Cull cow prices normally decline in the Fall as supplies rise and the weather turns past grilling season. This past Fall, even though total cow slaughter increased from summertime lows, cow prices showed little seasonal decline. The market is starting 2026 much like it finished 2025, with high prices, but will prices be able to increase into mid-year like usual?
Southern Plains auction prices for 85-90 percent lean cows finished the year at $163 per cwt, about where they had been since June. Nationally, cutter quality cows did experience a little seasonal decline, dropping as low as $124 after peaking over $135, but much of that decline was regained during December. Live cow prices bucked the meat market trend, however. The cow beef cutout and 90 percent lean beef both declined a little over 9 percent from September through the end of the year.
Both beef cow and dairy cow slaughter increased from summer lows; the most dramatic increase came from the dairy side. The number of dairy cows in the U.S. increased to more than 9.5 million head, the most since the early 1990s, leading to slightly increased dairy cow culling in the second half of 2025. In the first half of the year, dairy cow culling was down 7.3 percent from the same period in 2024; it was 1.2 percent higher during the second half of the year compared to the previous year. That small increase is reflective of a growing herd with more animals available to be culled. Herd growth has been fueled by earlier profitable milk prices and by the high price of calves, especially those beef and dairy crossbred calves.
Beef cow culling remained very low, down over 17 percent for the year, even though it increased seasonally late in 2025. Beef cow slaughter is likely to remain low in the coming months because of the overall smaller herd and efforts to increase cow numbers.
How much of a seasonal rally from January into June might we expect this year? It’s likely that we’ll have a seasonal rally because beef demand remains good and supplies of lean beef for grinding remain tight. Any significant increase in cow culling will come from the dairy side as very low milk prices hit bottom lines. Beef imports, the majority of which are lean beef trimmings, should remain historically large this year. Although it’s worth noting that imports were slightly lower than the previous year during the August-October period. On balance, cull cow prices should remain in record high territory.
Anderson, David. “Will Cull Cow Prices Increase This Year?” Southern Ag Today 6(3.2). January 13, 2026. Permalink
