Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is headed for a record near 6.6 billion bushels (USDA, 2026). Maples (2026) laid out the fundamentals in Southern Ag Today earlier this season. But as the season has unfolded, the key question for U.S. producers is no longer whether Brazil has soybeans. It is whether Brazil can move them to market as smoothly as the headline crop suggests. Three forces suggest otherwise: logistics frictions are disrupting exports at peak season; geopolitical shocks are raising costs across the supply chain; and a structural rise in domestic crushing is keeping more of the crop inside the country.
The first pressure is timing and logistics. Heavy rains in the Center-West slowed harvest while drought in the South trimmed yields. By mid-March, Brazil’s soybean harvest was running 10.6 percentage points behind the same point last year (Figure 1). About 60% of Brazil’s soybeans move to port by truck, yet only about 14% of the country’s roads are paved (Salin, 2025). A phytosanitary dispute with China compounded the problem: Brazil increased inspections on soybeans bound for China at Beijing’s request, Cargill paused exports to China, and longer certification waits raised both demurrage and freight costs (MAPA, 2026).
The second pressure is cost. Brazil imports more than 80% of its fertilizer (ANDA, 2026), and nearly 30% of global fertilizer exports transit the Strait of Hormuz (FAO, 2026). The closure stranded roughly a million metric tons and sent diesel prices surging in rural Brazil. Because the soybean crop was largely fertilized before the shock, the immediate input-cost pressure falls more on safrinha (second crop) corn and on 2026/27 budgets. But freight costs hit now: bunker fuel prices have surged as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply to Singapore, the world’s largest ship-refueling hub (Bloomberg, 2026).
Beneath these disruptions, a structural shift is changing the soybean balance sheet. Domestic crushing is projected to reach a record 2.26 billion bushels, up about 50% from a decade ago (ABIOVE, 2026). Biodiesel policy is one reason. Brazil’s blending mandate has risen from B7 (or 7%) in 2016 to B15 (or 15%) in 2025, and soybean-oil-based biodiesel production has more than doubled, from about 0.8 billion gallons to 1.9 billion as shown in Figure 2 (ANP/ABIOVE, 2026). More beans crushed at home means fewer whole soybeans available for export.
Two regulatory shifts add nuance. Cargill, ADM, and Bunge withdrew from the Amazon Soy Moratorium in early 2026 after a Mato Grosso state law penalized companies adhering to environmental agreements exceeding federal requirements. Their exit came as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to enter into force. That collision could create openings for U.S. soy in Europe. Meanwhile, the EU-Mercosur trade agreement would give Brazilian soy preferential European access, but a legal challenge could delay implementation (Council of the European Union, 2026).
Brazil still has an enormous crop. But large production does not guarantee maximum export pressure. Fertilizer costs are higher. Bunker fuel is tight. Port roads are congested. Ships face delays at port. And a growing share of Brazil’s soybeans are staying at home to be crushed domestically. In 2026, the key gap is between Brazil’s ability to grow soybeans and its ability to move them efficiently. That gap is where the competitive opportunity for U.S. producers may emerge.
Figure 1. Brazil Crop Progress Is Running Behind Last Year’s Pace
Figure 2. Soybean-Oil-Based Biodiesel Production in Brazil Has More Than Doubled Since 2015
Source: ANP/ABIOVE (2026).
References
Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais. (2026, March). Atualização das projeções do complexo soja para 2026 [Data set]. ABIOVE. https://abiove.org.br
Associação Nacional para Difusão de Adubos. (2026). Estatísticas: Entregas e produção de fertilizantes, 2025 [Data set]. ANDA. https://www.anda.org.br
Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis & Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais. (2026). Produção de biodiesel por matéria-prima: Total nacional, 2008–2025 [Data set]. ANP/ABIOVE. https://www.gov.br/anp
Bloomberg. (2026, March 16). Iran war spurs volatility for Singapore ship fuel distributors. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com
Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento. (2026a). Boletim de safras: 6º levantamento, safra 2025/26. https://www.conab.gov.br
Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento. (2026b). Progresso de safra: Plantio e colheita, semana de 8 a 14 de março de 2026 [Data set]. https://www.conab.gov.br
Council of the European Union. (2026, January 9). EU-Mercosur: Council greenlights signature of the comprehensive partnership and trade agreement [Press release]. https://www.consilium.europa.eu
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2026, March). Global agrifood implications of the 2026 conflict in the Middle East. FAO. https://openknowledge.fao.org
Maples, W. E. (2026, January 21). Brazilian crop progress: What U.S. producers should watch. Southern Ag Today, 6(4.3). https://southernagtoday.org
Ministério da Agricultura e Pecuária. (2026, March 13). Ofício-Circular nº 7/2026: Procedimentos de inspeção fitossanitária de cargas de grãos destinadas à exportação. Departamento de Defesa Agropecuária/Secretaria de Defesa Agropecuária. https://www.gov.br/agricultura
Salin, D. L. (2025, September). Soybean transportation guide: Brazil 2024. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. https://dx.doi.org/10.9752/TS048.09-2025
USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board. (2026, March). World agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE-672). U.S. Department of Agriculture. https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
Calil, Yuri. “Brazil’s Record Soybean Crop Meets a Fragile Supply Chain.” Southern Ag Today 6(13.3). March 25, 2026. Permalink
