A top priority of the second Trump administration is to enforce immigration laws, including mass deportations. Since the size of the undocumented population is likely at least 10 million people (Gutierrez-Li, 2025), the removal of a significant number of undocumented individuals could have economic effects on industries that have historically employed them. Such industries include agriculture, construction, and hospitality (Gutierrez-Li, 2026). In the case of farming, foreign workers represent around two thirds of the labor force, with undocumented workers accounting for around 40% of hired crop laborers (USDA, 2026), making agriculture particularly susceptible to immigration policies.
While the production of row crop commodities is highly mechanized, specialty crop agricultural operations common in the Southeast and the West Coast are still heavily reliant on a dependable workforce. Incidentally, undocumented individuals are concentrated in states like California, Florida, Washington, Georgia, and North Carolina (Table 1), where labor-intensive agriculture is prevalent. Despite the recent intensification in immigration enforcement, the reality is that there has already been a reduction in the inflow of undocumented workers to the agricultural sector for several years. Tightening labor markets and a diminishing supply of undocumented workers have led to significant growth in the number of H-2A visas issued each year, which constitute the only legal channel for bringing foreign agricultural workers to the United States. Since the early 90s, the H-2A program has been gaining popularity among agricultural producers, to the point that more than 300,000 H-2A visas were issued by the U.S. government in 2024 (Figure 1).
Table 1. Unauthorized Immigrant Population by Top Ten States of Residence, 2018–2020 and 2022
| State | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 |
| California | 2,640,000 | 2,620,000 | 2,410,000 | 2,600,000 |
| Texas | 1,950,000 | 1,950,000 | 1,900,000 | 2,060,000 |
| Florida | 680,000 | 650,000 | 610,000 | 590,000 |
| New Jersey | 460,000 | 390,000 | 400,000 | 490,000 |
| Illinois | 460,000 | 440,000 | 370,000 | 420,000 |
| New York | 600,000 | 510,000 | 370,000 | 410,000 |
| North Carolina | 360,000 | 340,000 | 360,000 | 360,000 |
| Georgia | 390,000 | 360,000 | 360,000 | 340,000 |
| Washington | 310,000 | 330,000 | 340,000 | 340,000 |
| Arizona | 340,000 | 330,000 | 340,000 | 290,000 |
| Other/unknown | 3,380,000 | 3,200,000 | 3,040,000 | 3,090,000 |
| Total | 11,570,000 | 11,110,000 | 10,510,000 | 10,990,000 |
Despite the rapid growth in the demand for H-2A workers, there are reasons to think that the program is far from solving agricultural labor shortages. Farmers and industry groups have repeatedly cited that while they value the ability to hire H-2A workers as needed, the high costs associated with doing so have limited the number they can afford. However, at the end of 2025, several changes were made to the H-2A program. First, the data source to calculate the minimum wages changed. Second, two categories of wages were created. One for the five standard occupational class codes covering field and livestock workers, and another for all other standard occupational class codes. Third, two different wage rates were introduced, based on skill level (I and II). Fourth, a reduction in wages paid by employers if housing is provided. Altogether, these changes led to significant reductions in the minimum wages paid to H-2A workers across most states, which will likely result in a significant increase in the program’s utilization.
Figure 1. H-2A Visas Issued by the U.S. Government: 1992-2024
Gutiérrez-Li, Alejandro. “Agricultural Labor Outlook in 2026.” Southern Ag Today 6(16.1). April 13, 2026. Permalink
Increasingly strict immigration policies that reduce the number of undocumented farmworkers may well be offset by a comparable rise in the number of H-2A workers, leaving the net impact on the farm labor supply of both policies somewhat unnoticeable. Combined, the policies of the second Trump Administration could reduce the share of undocumented workers in agriculture, which would generally be positive. However, the significant short-run reductions in H-2A workers’ wages will likely disincentivize investment in automation, leaving employers vulnerable to future changes in wage policies following political cycles.
References
Farm Labor. Economic Research Service. United States Department of Agriculture.
Gutiérrez-Li, A. 2026. Breaking Down the Deportation Strategy: A Look at Policies, Costs and Potential Consequences. Choices 41(1).
Gutiérrez-Li, A. 2025. The Unseen Workforce: How Immigration Enforcement Could Shake the U.S. Economy. Choices 40(3).
Gutiérrez-Li, Alejandro. “Agricultural Labor Outlook in 2026.” Southern Ag Today 6(16.1). April 13, 2026. Permalink
