The hog market has a number of interesting contradictions. Amid the factors of profitable production, live and cutout values well below last year, and little growth in production, USDA released its June 1 Hogs and Pigs report last week, and it continued to show a smaller breeding herd.
The breeding herd was estimated to be 5.88 million head, down 1.2 percent compared to last year. That is the smallest herd since 2014 and the 6th consecutive year of declines in the June 1 breeding herd. The number of market hogs was even with last year. The number of pigs per litter over the December 2025-May 2026 time period hit a record high of 11.88. Market hog production has been boosted by pigs per litter, which has offset the decline in the number of sows farrowing.
The lack of growth in the sow herd is interesting given the Iowa State University estimate of farrow to finish hog profits. The April 2026 data was the 24th consecutive month of estimated profits. Normally profits jump start expansion, yet that has not occurred due to a number of headwinds. Expansion often requires new barns, and rising construction costs have likely offset estimated future profits. Animal health and sow mortality have likely constrained expansion. Falling feed costs have been a big reason for profits. High prices boosted profits dramatically in the middle of 2025, but prices have seen little increase in 2026.
Hog prices, as reported by the national weighted average carcass price, peaked last July at $108.79 per cwt. Prices entering July this year were $92 per cwt. The pork cutout value is about 20 percent lower than last year and is also below the 5-year average value. Wholesale prices for hams, bellies, loins, and trimmings are all lower than last year. Only spareribs are higher than last year. The futures market is not indicating higher prices for the rest of the year. Neither pork nor hog prices indicate much potential for herd growth in the coming months.
Happy 250th 4th of July to all of you from us livestock economists at SAT! We hope you find something great to put on the grill or smoker and celebrate, looking forward to the next 250.
Anderson, David. “Little Growth in Pork Production Ahead.” Southern Ag Today 6(27.2). June 30, 2026. Permalink
