Two key reports were released on Friday that provide new insights into cattle herd dynamics and feedlot inventories. USDA-NASS published the mid-year Cattle Inventory report and the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Notably, this is the second consecutive year for the July Cattle Inventory report. It was one of several reports USDA-NASS suspended in 2024 due to budget constraints. Overall, the July report showed a small increase in total cattle inventories, increasing by 200 thousand head from 94.0 million in 2025 to 94.2 million in 2026.
For me, one of the bigger surprises was the 2026 beef cow estimate. USDA estimates July 2026 beef cow inventories at 28.45 million head, down 1%, or 200 thousand head. Most were expecting to see a slight increase in beef cow numbers. One of the main factors to look at before this report is released is January through June beef cow slaughter as a percent of January beef cow inventories. In 2026, through June, beef cow slaughter totaled 1.02 million head, or 3.7% of January beef cow inventories. That is the lowest slaughter rate going back to the 1980s.
The 2026 calf crop is estimated at 32.5 million head, 2.0% smaller than the 2025 calf crop. This total includes 23.9 million calves born in the first half of the year and an expected 8.6 million to be born in the second half. If realized, this will be a very small calf crop and would set us up for further declines in beef production.
Most were looking to this report for signs of herd expansion. One variable to look at is the number of beef replacement heifers. NASS estimated 3.8 million beef heifers held for replacement, a 3.0% increase from last year. This is only an increase of 100 thousand head. We are still a long way away from beef replacement heifer numbers that would signal widespread herd expansion. Drought is still limiting that from happening.
The July Cattle on Feed report also includes the number of heifers on feed, which allows us to calculate their share of total feedlot inventories. In July 2026, heifers on feed were estimated at 4.25 million head, accounting for 37.4% of total feedlot inventories. This is down from 38.1% in July 2025. For context, in 2015, heifers made up just 32.5% of feedlot inventories.
Overall, the July cattle inventory report is bullish, though I suspect much of the news in the report will be overshadowed by news last week that the U.S. will begin a phased reopening of the southern border to allow imports of feeder cattle. I’m sure there will be lots of opinions about that development that will influence markets this week.
Recommended citation format: Mitchell, James. “Where did the Cows Go?” Southern Ag Today 6(31.2). July 28, 2026. Permalink
