Authors: Ryan Loy, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist, H. Scott Stiles, Extension Economist, and Hunter D. Biram, Assistant Professor and Extension Economist, University of Arkansas
According to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS), world cotton mill use is projected to reach 121.95 million bales in 2026/27, which is an increase of about 2 million bales from 2025/26 and the highest level since the 2017/18 marketing year. This increase marks the fourth consecutive year of growth in global mill use (Figure 1).
Figure 1. World Cotton Mill Use, Million 480 Lb. Bales, 2021 – 2026
The increase in mill use this year is concentrated in a handful of countries (Figure 2): China’s mill use is forecast at 41.5 million bales, up 500,000 bales and the highest since 2020. China remains the largest supplier of apparel products to the world. India’s use is currently projected at 26 million bales, up from 25.5 million bales in 2025, matching the record set in the 2020/21 marketing year. Together, China and India are expected to account for 55 percent of global mill use in 2026/27. Pakistan is also expected to mill 10.2 million bales after a 900,000-bale decline in 2025. Similarly, Bangladesh’s use is expected to grow to 7.8 million bales, up from 7.6 million bales in 2025, but down from 8.2 million bales in 2024. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are looking to expand their textile and apparel exports this year and into the near future. In contrast, the United States’ mill use remains a fraction of these countries’ totals, forecasted at 1.6 million bales in 2026. This is down from 2.5 million bales in 2021 (USDA-FAS, 2026). However, nearly every major milling country is projected to grow this year, with the major countries (i.e., China, India, and Pakistan) representing nearly 75% of the global mill use gain in 2026 (USDA-ERS, 2026).
Figure 2. Mill Use by Major Spinning Country, Million 480 lb. Bales, 2021 – 2026
These gains are the result of current market forces, such as underlying consumer demand for cotton apparel, which is expected to rise with world economic growth. Cotton fiber prices were relatively stable through the 2025/26 marketing year, which supports global mill demand. Synthetic fibers, such as polyester, are strongly correlated with crude oil, which has seen a dramatic increase in 2026. As a result, cotton has become more price competitive with synthetic fibers (Metcalfe, 2025). Additionally, mills are working through low yarn and fabric inventories from previous years, creating a restocking demand. Mill restocking, combined with tighter supply from lower production this year, is a major reason world ending stocks are projected to fall to 71.1 million bales (down from 75.7 million in 2025 and the lowest since the 2018/19 marketing year). The strengthening demand for cotton lint is expected to provide sustained upward pressure on farm prices, as reflected in USDA’s July 2026 WASDE report, which projects the 2026/27 season-average farm price as $0.73/lb, a 10.5-cent increase over the 2025/26 marketing year. It’s worth noting the information presented here draws on the most recent data available. The August 2026 WASDE report, which is scheduled for release this afternoon, may revise these projections.
References
Metcalfe, S. 2025. “Understanding the forces that drive global cotton prices.” Oxford Economics. Retrieved from https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/understanding-the-forces-that-drive-global-cotton-prices/
USDA – Economic Research Service (ERS). 2026. “Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2026.” Retrieved from https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/115080
USDA – Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). 2026. “Production, Supply, and Distribution: Cotton.” Retrieved from https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads
USDA – World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 2026. “July 2026 WASDE Report.” Retrieved from https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0726.pdf
Recommended citation format: Loy, Ryan, H. Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram. “Global Cotton Mill Use at a Six-Year High.” Southern Ag Today 6(33.3). August 12, 2026. Permalink
