Authors: Josh Maples and David Anderson
Last Tuesday, Southern Ag Today examined Choice beef cutout and primal cut values, which led to an examination of wholesale boneless beef prices. Boneless beef, in various lean-fat ratios, makes up ground beef supplies. A significant portion of a carcass becomes ground beef, as well as more than half of beef imports are lean beef trimmings to mix with domestic ground beef supplies. The markets for 50 percent lean beef (which is produced domestically from fed cattle), and 90 percent lean beef (which is both produced domestically and imported) are important to analyze to understand the mix driving ground beef supplies.
The price of 50 percent lean beef has declined sharply since mid-year, from about $185 per cwt during May and June to $89 per cwt in mid-October. The price of this beef is 36 percent lower than the same time last year. Heavier dressed weights and more yield grade 4 and 5 cattle have boosted supplies of 50 percent lean beef, offsetting reduced cattle slaughter. Fed steer slaughter in recent weeks has been above a year ago, which may be further increasing supplies.
Some of the 50 percent lean price decline is seasonal and normal for this time of year. However, the magnitude of the decline is larger than normal. It is natural to think that larger imports could be a driver, but the connection with imports is different for the 50 percent lean beef market. Beef imports, which are most similar to domestic 90 percent lean production, normally provide some support for 50 percent lean prices since they allow for more 50 percent lean to be blended for ground beef. However, the 50 percent lean market has declined despite the additional imports under the “affordable beef” TRQ executive order. Available supplies of ground beef relative to current demand could be a factor. While the amount of boneless beef in cold storage is a small amount relative to consumption, the amount of boneless beef in cold storage is up 6 percent compared to last year, while the amount of beef cuts is down 3 percent.
90 percent lean boneless beef wholesale prices have also declined since mid-year, with most of the decline, from $449 to $392 per cwt, happening in the last 6 weeks since the TRQ executive order was announced. Lean beef prices normally decline this time of the year as cow culling picks up and we move into Fall consumer spending patterns. Beef cow culling began to increase, as usual, but then it has declined over the last 2 weeks. If the Fall run of cull beef cows is limited this year, some tighter supplies of lean beef may be felt.
Recommended citation format: Maples, Josh, and David Anderson. “50 Lean Falls Out of Bed.” Southern Ag Today 6(43.2). October 20, 2026. permalink
