It’s turkey time, and a good opportunity to look at turkey prices and supplies as we head towards the big day. Much higher wholesale prices have been in the news, so it’s also a good chance to examine wholesale versus retail prices and grocery store sales strategies.
Wholesale, national average, 8-16 pound turkey prices are up a whopping 82 percent compared to last year in early November! The heavier Tom turkeys weighing 16-24 pounds are up even more, 88 percent, compared to last year. It’s important to recognize that these are spot market, wholesale prices, and that most people are interested in the retail prices they are going to have to pay this year.
USDA publishes a weekly turkey retail feature report. This report, using data from over 24,000 retail outlets across the country, indicates special and feature prices for turkey. Whole, frozen turkeys weighing less than 16 pounds and those weighing more than 16 pounds averaged $0.93 and $0.92 per pound, respectively, this week. Turkeys of those weights were $1.19 and $1.15 per pound last year. Grocery store featured frozen turkey prices appear to be lower than last year. Good news for consumers! If you like a fresh turkey instead of frozen, those retail prices are running higher than last year.
To understand how the wholesale and retail prices can move in different directions it’s worth remembering that most outlets contract their estimated turkey needs early in the year. Those contracted prices are likely much lower than the current wholesale market. Actual retail turkey prices that consumers pay often reflect special prices and features. As a grocery store meat buyer told me a long time ago, “The quickest way to get fired is to run out of turkeys at Thanksgiving!” The wholesale price reflects buyers spur of the moment additional needs and the available supplies to fill those orders.
For the year to date, total turkey production is about 3 percent less than last year. But, since mid-year, production is about 2 percent higher than last year. Total production has caught up after shortfalls early in 2025. Overall, fewer turkeys have been produced this year, and fewer birds are in cold storage awaiting Thanksgiving. HPAI is again impacting the spot market for turkeys. Outbreaks on turkey farms have ramped up in the last 6 weeks in both Canada and northern states like Michigan, hitting those producers especially hard prior to the holiday driven demands.
It looks like wholesale prices are much higher than last year, and retail pricing specials appear to be in full swing heading towards Thanksgiving. Consumers may find a deal. While we always talk about turkey price movements this time of the year, it always strikes me that the whole bird provides a lot of value for the dollar. Most people get several meals from the bird. If you’re blessed to have Thanksgiving dinner with family and friends, you’ll get a lot more value than can be reflected in money.
Anderson, David. “Some Special Prices for Turkey Day.” Southern Ag Today 5(46.2). November 11, 2025. Permalink
