Row crop farmers are price takers with little to no influence on the price the market sets for their goods. Therefore, managing costs and yield is very important to maintaining profitability. It is a difficult balance meeting each crop’s basic fundamental needs, such as water or fertilizer, while also finding ways to reduce/maintain costs. The goal is to be more efficient with inputs without sacrificing, or hopefully increasing, yield. We’ve seen new technologies, such as precision agriculture, that have enabled more efficient use of inputs. New technology and seed varieties have also increased yield, but all of these advances have costs associated with them. Added to those costs is the significant increase in input prices that has occurred over the last several years. So the question is, have yield increases offset rising input costs?
Utilizing Mississippi as an example, yield increases vary significantly by crop. From 2010 to 2025, corn and soybean yields have seen increases of 32% and 45%, respectively, whereas cotton and rice have seen only an increase of 18% and 8%, respectively (USDA NASS 2025). Meanwhile, cotton costs have increased by 102%, and rice costs have increased 93% over this same time period. Costs per acre for corn have risen 92%, and for soybeans they have increased by 90% (Gregory et al. 2025).
To further examine this, we index prices and yields to 2010 and then look at the difference between the two indexes (Figure 1). A positive value means that cost increases have outpaced yield increases. A negative number means that yield increases have exceeded cost increases. The first thing to note is that cotton and rice costs have outpaced yield at a higher rate than what we have seen in corn and soybeans for most of the time period between 2010 and 2025. Corn yield gains were able to keep pace with input cost increases up until 2022, when costs began to increase significantly. The difference in cost and yield indexes for corn actually exceeded that of cotton and rice in 2023, driven mostly by higher fertilizer prices. Soybean yield increases actually exceeded input cost increases from 2010 to 2014. In 2024 and 2025, the indexes for corn and soybeans came down more than cotton and rice, due to larger decreases in costs for corn and soybeans compared to cotton and rice.
The data shows that there haven’t been sufficient yield increases in cotton and rice to keep up with higher input costs. This makes it harder for these crops to stay profitable from yield gains alone, and producers have to hope for higher prices to offset higher costs. The generally higher costs involved in these crops compared to corn and soybeans could explain some of the large decreases in acres of cotton and rice grown over this time period. However, since 2021, input price increases have far exceeded yield gains for all crops. This is true not just for Mississippi but across the southern region and the U.S. as a whole. Supply chain issues, trade disputes, and inflation have all contributed to these cost increases. Yields on the other hand, especially for cotton and rice, have been relatively flat these last few years. If these trends continue, producers will need to continue to find ways other than higher yields to offset these higher costs, whether this is by increased input use efficiency or risk management tools.
References
USDA NASS. (2026). https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/
Gregory. E., Mills, B.E., & Maples, W. (2025). Delta Planning Budgets. Mississippi State University Extension. https://www.agecon.msstate.edu/whatwedo/budgets.php
Recommended citation format: Mills, Brian E. “Cost Increases Have Outpaced Yield Gains.” Southern Ag Today 6(35.1). August 24, 2026. Permalink
