The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released on August 12. As discussed in last month’s article (Gardner, 2026), the August WASDE marks an important point in USDA’s crop forecasting process. Beginning in August, USDA replaces the trend-line yields used earlier in the growing season with its first survey-based yield forecasts. These estimates incorporate considerably more information than was available earlier in the summer, including producer surveys, field observations, and satellite imagery. As a result, August often brings some of the more notable yield revisions of the growing season. The same information is also used to refine planted and harvested acreage estimates, and this month’s acreage revisions added another element of surprise to the report.
Corn planted acreage was revised 1.4 million acres higher in the August WASDE, bringing the national estimate to 96.7 million acres. The additional acreage more than offset a reduction in the U.S. corn yield forecast to 180.7 bushels per acre. As a result, estimated corn production actually increased by 13 million bushels from the July estimate. However, lower beginning stocks and stronger projected exports more than offset the increase in production, pulling 2026 ending stocks down to 1.65 billion bushels. That would be 292 million bushels below the previous marketing year. With a somewhat tighter and more price-supportive supply-and-demand outlook, USDA raised the season-average farm price to $4.50 per bushel.
Soybean planted acreage was also revised upward by 1.4 million acres, bringing the national estimate to 86.8 million acres. The U.S. soybean yield forecast was lowered slightly to 52.7 bushels per acre, compared with 53.0 bushels per acre last month. As with corn, the increase in acreage more than offset the lower yield estimate, raising projected production to 4.52 billion bushels. USDA also increased projected crush by 30 million bushels, reflecting strong crush margins and demand for soybean products, but ending stocks still increased by 10 million bushels to 320 million bushels. The season-average farm price was unchanged at $11.40 per bushel.
Following the same general pattern as corn and soybeans, cotton planted acreage was revised higher while the yield forecast was lowered. Cotton planted acreage increased by 620,000 acres to 10.47 million acres, while the U.S. yield forecast was reduced to 798 pounds per acre, down from 872 pounds per acre last month. Unlike corn and soybeans, however, the lower yield more than offset the increase in acreage, reducing projected production by about 90,000 bales to 13.61 million bales. With no changes to the demand side of the balance sheet, projected ending stocks declined to 4.0 million bales, down from 4.2 million bales last year. USDA also raised the season-average farm price to 75 cents per pound.
While the August yield forecasts incorporate considerably more information than estimates made earlier in the growing season, history shows that they can still change substantially before the final estimate. The chart below shows the difference between the final U.S. yield and USDA’s August forecast from 2010 through 2025. Over that period, the final corn yield differed from the August forecast by an average of 3.8 bushels per acre in absolute terms, while soybean yields differed by an average of 1.5 bushels per acre. Cotton experienced much larger revisions, averaging nearly 48 pounds per acre. The revisions have also occurred in both directions. Since 2010, final corn yields have averaged 1.5 bushels per acre below the August forecast, while soybean and cotton yields have averaged slightly above their August forecasts. This variability provides useful perspective for the 2026 estimates: the August forecasts represent USDA’s best assessment of current crop conditions, but there is still room for meaningful changes in yields, production, and ending stocks as the growing season progresses.
Recommended citation format: Maples, William E. “August WASDE Brings New Acreage and Yield Estimates.” Southern Ag Today 6(34.3). August 19, 2026. Permalink
