September WASDE Forecasts Lower Production, Higher Prices for Most Crops

The USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on September 11, 2026. These are the first updates to last month’s survey-based yield estimates and adjusted area estimates using data from the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acres (Maples, 2026). This month’s WASDE report continues to refine those yield and acreage estimates. Overall, the September report forecasts increased prices for most crops, relative to the August forecast.

There was little change in projected harvested acres, compared to the August report. Sorghum forecast harvested acres decreased by 3.7% compared to the August projection, to 5.2 million acres. This change was driven by 50-thousand-acre declines in planted acres in both Kansas and Texas. Peanuts had a 0.9% decrease in projected harvested acres, due to small declines across a number of states. Corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans all had less than a 0.5% change in predicted harvested acres, relative to the August forecast.

Forecasted yields were down for the most part, relative to August. Upland cotton showed the largest decline at 2.8%, to 766 lb. per acre, which would mark a 9.0% decrease compared to last year. Texas – the largest cotton producing state – is forecasted to have a 15.8%-lower yield than last year, driving the decreased national yield. Drought across the Texas High Plains is the main cause of the lower forecast cotton yield, as 63% of US total cotton acres are in areas of drought. Sorghum yields were predicted to fall by 1.8% to 54.4 bu. per acre, also due to the drought across the Southern Plains. If realized, this would mark a 25.1% decrease in yield compared to 2025. Peanut yields are forecast 1.9% lower than August, due to decreases across most of the peanut-producing states. This is prior to any impacts that may occur from the closing of the Delta Peanut facility in Arkansas (Reneau, 2026). Lastly, corn yields are forecast down 1.2% nationwide, while rice and soybeans are up 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

These updated yield and acreage levels have led to decreased production estimates for most crops. Cotton and sorghum had the largest drop in production compared to the August forecast, at 3.0%. Peanuts are projected to have a 2.8% decrease in production, corn a 1.3% decrease, and rice a 0.1% decrease compared to August. In contrast, soybean production is up 0.4%.

Forecasted marketing-year prices increased for all crops except for rice (table 1). Sorghum had the largest rise (7.0%), followed by corn (6.7%), soybeans (5.3%), and upland cotton (4.0%). Despite an increase in estimated soybean production, soybean prices were buoyed by increased expected usage due to higher exports. While this month’s WASDE report provided more information about the size of this year’s crop, these values will continue to be refined throughout the rest of the year in subsequent reports.

Table 1: Past and Projected US Marketing-year Prices by Crop

References

Maples, William E. “August WASDE Brings New Acreage and Yield Estimates.” Southern Ag Today 6(34.3). August 19, 2026.

Reneau, A. “Arkansas Peanut Growers Face Uncertainty after Delta Peanut Loses Federal Warehouse Bond.” K8News. Available at: https://www.kait8.com/2026/09/12/arkansas-peanut-growers-face-uncertainty-after-delta-peanut-loses-federal-warehouse-bond/

USDA. US Agricultural Commodities in Drought. September 8, 2026. Available at: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Maps.aspx?1

USDA-NASS. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. September 11, 2026. Available at: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796054/wasde0926.pdf

USDA-NASS. Crop Production. September 11, 2026. Available at: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796056/crop0926.pdf  

Recommended citation format: Sawadgo, Wendiam. “September WASDE Forecasts Lower Production, Higher Prices for Most Crops.” Southern Ag Today 6(38.3). September 16, 2026. Permalink