In 2025, U.S. peanut planted area reached its highest mark since 1991, at 1.95 million acres, as was confirmed by the recently released&nbsp;Crop Production Annual Summary. This increase in peanut acreage was driven by a 70,000-acre jump in Georgia and a 45,000-acre increase in Texas. Mississippi was the only major peanut-growing state that had a decrease in peanut planted area compared to 2024. At the end of the 2025 growing season, 97.6% of the area planted was harvested, which was the highest rate since 2014.



Figure 1: 2025 Peanut Yield by State (lb./acre) and Percent Change from 2024&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1264" height="716" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.3.1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-43356" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.3.1.png 1264w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.3.1-1024x580.png 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.3.1-768x435.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1264px) 100vw, 1264px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data source: USDA-NASS.&nbsp;2025&nbsp;Crop Production Annual Summary.</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. had a middling peanut yield, averaging 3,767 lb. per acre (Figure 1). While this yield was 1% higher than 2024, it falls about 130 lb. per acre below the previous five-year average. Georgia – the leading producing peanut state – averaged 4,050 lb. per acre, which marks a 7% increase from last year’s value, but still 12% below the high in 2012. Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi observed similar yield increases. Oklahoma had a small increase of just 2%, but the second-highest yield on record for the state. In contrast, Texas had a significant decrease in yield, at 2,450 lb. per acre, the smallest state yield since 1995, when Texas farmers produced 2,000 lb. per acre.



Figure 2:&nbsp;Peanut Production, Disappearance, and Ending Stocks by Year



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="369" height="254" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.3-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-43347"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data Source: USDA-ERS.&nbsp;Oil Crops Outlook:&nbsp;January 2026.</figcaption></figure>



Overall, peanut production was lower than expected by about 110 thousand tons from what was forecast in September (Rabinowitz, 2025). However, at an estimated 3.59 million tons in 2025, total production was still up 11%, and edged out the 2017 total of 3.56 million tons for the highest on record (Figure 2). While total peanut disappearance is forecast to increase 6% for the 2025-26 marketing year, it is expected to fall short of production, leading to a 24% increase in ending stocks. As we look into 2026, peanut prices are lower than last year, but competing crops’ prices are not looking any better. Corn prices are slightly lower than they were last year in mid-January, with September futures prices down to around $4.40 per bushel. December cotton futures are in the 68-cent-per-lb range, similar to this point last year. As a result, I expect that we will see another sizeable peanut planted area in 2026.



References



Rabinowitz, Adam. “Will the 2025 Peanut Crop Set a New Record?” Southern Ag Today 5(44.3). October 29, 2025.&nbsp;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2025/10/29/will-the-2025-peanut-crop-set-a-new-record/">https://southernagtoday.org/2025/10/29/will-the-2025-peanut-crop-set-a-new-record/</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



USDA-ERS.&nbsp;Oil Crops Outlook. January 14, 2026. Available at:&nbsp;<a href="https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb08p">https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/j098zb08p</a>



USDA-NASS.&nbsp;Crop Production Annual Summary.&nbsp;January 12, 2026. Available at:&nbsp;<a href="https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k3569432s">https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k3569432s</a>



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Sawadgo, Wendiam. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/22/coming-off-record-peanut-production-where-do-we-go-in-2026/">Coming off record peanut production, where do we go in 2026?</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(5.3). January 28, 2026. <a href="http://coming-off-record-peanut-production-where-do-we-go-in-2026">Permalink</a>

Coming off record peanut production, where do we go in 2026?

USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report, released on Friday, January 23rd, contained the estimated number of heifers on feed.&nbsp;&nbsp;The breakout of steers and heifers on feed is released quarterly.&nbsp;&nbsp;Many have been looking closely at this statistic for evidence of a significant herd expansion starting.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Heifers on feed totaled 4.435 million head, down 140,000 head, or 3.1 percent, from last January 1.&nbsp;&nbsp;The number of steers on feed also declined by 3.2 percent.&nbsp;&nbsp;Heifers represented 38.73 percent of the total cattle on feed, hardly different from last year’s 38.70 percent.&nbsp;&nbsp;It was the fewest January 1 heifers on feed since 2019.&nbsp;&nbsp;Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas had fewer heifers on feed, with Colorado having the largest decline of 85,000 head, followed by Texas, down 55,000 head.&nbsp;&nbsp;The decline in the heifers on feed in those states is interesting in that those states would have been most impacted by the border closure with Mexico.&nbsp;&nbsp;Other states either reported no change or, in the case of Nebraska, 10,000 more heifers on feed.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Spayed heifers imported from Mexico contribute to the total number of heifers on feed.&nbsp;&nbsp;The January Cattle on Feed report is the first full month of comparison to a year ago, with no cattle imports in December 2025 and 2024.&nbsp;Approximately 145,000 fewer spayed heifers were imported from Mexico in the months leading up to January 1, 2026, compared to January 1, 2025.&nbsp;&nbsp;So, the decline in heifers on feed could largely reflect fewer imports rather than a significant decline in domestic heifer feeders being placed.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While the decline in heifers on feed suggests some heifers held for herd rebuilding, the reduction in supplies from Mexico and heifers as a percent of all cattle on feed indicates little herd rebuilding from additional domestic heifer retention, yet.&nbsp;It is likely that the inventory report released on the 30th&nbsp;should indicate more heifers held for beef cow replacement.



The rest of the cattle on feed largely lined up with expectations.&nbsp;&nbsp;Marketings were up about 2 percent, with one more slaughter day during December, daily average marketings were below a year ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;Placements were 5.4 percent below a year ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;The total number of cattle on feed was down 3.2 percent a year ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;Supplies should continue to tighten this year and into next year, as well.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1920" height="1440" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-43341" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-1.jpeg 1920w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-1-1024x768.jpeg 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-1-768x576.jpeg 768w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-1-1536x1152.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1920" height="1440" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-43342" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-2.jpeg 1920w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-2-1024x768.jpeg 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-2-768x576.jpeg 768w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-2-1536x1152.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1920" height="1440" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-3.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-43343" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-3.jpeg 1920w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-3-1024x768.jpeg 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-3-768x576.jpeg 768w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.2-3-1536x1152.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px" /></figure>

Any Herd Expansion from Heifers?

Southern Timber Market Update



In the fourth quarter of 2025, average pine sawtimber stumpage prices across the South softened further. Pine sawtimber averaged $23.23/ton, about 6% lower than a year ago and 10% below its early-2022 peak (TimberMart-South, 2026). Pine chip-n-saw prices remain relatively stable at $17.50-18.20/ton, essentially unchanged from last year but roughly 20% below 2022 levels. Pine pulpwood prices continued to slide, averaging $5.96/ton, down 22% year over year and 46% below their 2022 peak. Hardwood pulpwood prices held around $8/ton, stable over the past two years but still 33% lower than 2022 levels. Hardwood sawtimber prices remained relatively stable at $33.55/ton.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Stumpage prices varied widely across states and subregions.&nbsp;<a>In Q4 2025, pine sawtimber prices ranged from about $17-21/ton in Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama to over $30/ton in Florida and North Carolina (Figure 1).&nbsp;</a>Timber prices are inherently local, influenced by mill demand, weather, accessibility, timber quality, species mix, and local inventories.&nbsp;<a>Compared to a year ago,&nbsp;</a>pine sawtimber prices rose moderately in North Georgia (+20%) and North-Central Florida (+14%), declined in South Carolina (-26%), Northeast Texas (-16%), Alabama (-19%), and North Carolina (-12%), while remaining relatively stable elsewhere.



Figure 1. Average pine sawtimber stumpage prices by state and subregion, Q4 2025



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1304" height="715" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-43330" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-1.jpg 1304w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-1-1024x561.jpg 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-1-768x421.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1304px) 100vw, 1304px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data source: TimberMart-South (2026)</figcaption></figure>



In Q4 2025, pine pulpwood prices ranged from below $4/ton in Arkansas, Southern Louisiana, Tennessee, and Southeast Texas to $9-14/ton in North-Central Florida, South Georgia, Eastern North Carolina, and Virginia (Figure 2). Compared to a year ago, prices declined sharply in South Georgia (-40%), South Carolina (-32%), Arkansas (-27%), and Louisiana (-26%), while remaining relatively stable in Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. 



Figure 2. Average pine pulpwood stumpage prices by state and subregion, Q4 2025



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1271" height="696" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-43331" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-2.jpg 1271w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-2-1024x561.jpg 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-2-768x421.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1271px) 100vw, 1271px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data source: TimberMart-South (2026)</figcaption></figure>



A closer look at southern timber markets



Weaker pine sawtimber prices reflect softness in the housing market. Over 70% of the U.S. softwood lumber and structural panel consumption is tied to single-family construction and remodeling activity (Alderman, 2022). While new single-family homes now account for a larger share of for-sale inventory than before the pandemic, overall supply remains constrained by affordability challenges, higher construction and financing costs, labor shortages, zoning restrictions, and rising existing homes for sale. In October 2025, single-family housing starts fell 7.8% year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units (U.S. Census Bureau, 2026).&nbsp;



Tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have increased sharply since August 2024, with total duties now reaching 45.16%. While these higher tariffs may support U.S. production over the long term, they are likely to increase construction costs in the short run and further constrain housing starts.&nbsp;



Reflecting weaker lumber demand, lumber mill utilization rates declined from 81% in Q2 2021 to 68% in Q3 2025 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2025). Several major lumber producers have announced deeper curtailments and downtime to better align output with market conditions.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The continued decline in pine pulpwood prices reflects ongoing structural changes in the pulp and paper industry, including product shifts,&nbsp;increased use of&nbsp;recycled&nbsp;fiber, mill modernization, and relocation to lower-cost regions.&nbsp;These trends intensified in 2025, reducing regional demand for pulpwood and placing downward pressure on stumpage prices&nbsp;(Figure 3). Between 2023 and 2025, more than 10 major pulp facilities in the South closed,&nbsp;removing over 25 million tons of annual fiber demand and significantly reshaping regional pulpwood markets.



In areas heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene, storm-related salvage further compounded these effects, leading to sharper price declines. Conversely, new investments and mill expansions in South Alabama and Arkansas have increased local demand and helped support pulpwood prices in those areas.&nbsp;



Figure 3. U.S. South wood-using pulping capacity, 2014-2025



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1312" height="987" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-43332" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-3.png 1312w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-3-1024x770.png 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.05.1-3-768x578.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1312px) 100vw, 1312px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data source: Forisk (2025)</figcaption></figure>



Looking Ahead



Single-family building permits, a leading indicator of housing starts,&nbsp;fell to 876,000 units in October, 9.4% lower than a year earlier (U.S. Census Bureau, 2026). Although Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 may ease financing conditions, housing starts are expected to remain under pressure in 2026. Remodeling and repairing activity, however, is projected to continue slow but steady growth (JCHS, 2025; NAHB, 2026). Higher tariffs on Canadian lumber may provide modest support demand for domestic production.&nbsp;



Overall, pine sawtimber prices in the South are expected to remain relatively stable. Areas heavily damaged by Hurricane Helene may face tighter timber supply and upward pressure on sawtimber prices due to inventory losses, particularly where growth-to-drain ratios were already low (USDA Forest Service, 2024).&nbsp;Pulpwood prices are expected to continue trending downward in most areas through 2026, though prices may remain stable locally where new investments add demand.&nbsp;



References



Alderman, D. 2022. U.S. forest products annual market review and prospects, 2015-2021. General Technical Report FPL-GTR-289. Madison, WI.



Forisk. 2025. Forisk North American forest industry capacity database. Athens, GA: Forisk.



JCHS. 2025.&nbsp;Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA). Cambridge, MA.



NAHB. 2026. NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI).&nbsp;&nbsp;



TimberMart-South. 2026.&nbsp;Market news quarterly. Athens, GA.



U.S. Census Bureau. 2025. Quarterly survey of plant capacity utilization.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/qpc.html">https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/qpc.html</a>



U.S. Census Bureau. 2026. Monthly new residential construction, October 2025.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html">https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html</a>



USDA Forest Service. 2024. Forest Inventory Analysis Program Forest Inventory EVALIDator web-application. St. Paul, MN.&nbsp;



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Li, Yanshu. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/22/pine-sawtimber-prices-soften-as-pine-pulpwood-continues-to-fall/">Pine Sawtimber Prices Soften as Pine Pulpwood Continues to Fall.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(5.1). January 26, 2026. <a href="http://pine-sawtimber-prices-soften-as-pine-pulpwood-continues-to-fall">Permalink</a>

Pine Sawtimber Prices Soften as Pine Pulpwood Continues to Fall

There are a number of considerations for farmers and ranchers when it comes to estate planning.&nbsp;&nbsp;Things like determining the fair market value of their estate for tax purposes, or deciding the best way to organize their operation to ensure success for the next generation, or selecting the right person to serve as their medical power of attorney all come to mind.&nbsp;&nbsp;One issue that is easy to overlook, however, is the importance of keeping beneficiary designations up to date.



There are certain assets that pass by contract outside the will, which are known as “non-probate assets.”&nbsp;&nbsp;Common examples of these types of assets include life insurance policies, Transfer on Death bank accounts, and retirement accounts with a designated beneficiary.&nbsp;&nbsp;For these assets, it is the beneficiary designation that will govern distribution at the person’s death, regardless of what a will or other estate planning tool might say.



An example of how failure to keep beneficiaries up to date was illustrated well in a 2016 case from the Dallas Court of Appeals in Texas.<a href="applewebdata://4FEFBB2A-D2B1-4B6D-A5CF-EDC8D45C2539#_ftn1">[1]</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;There, Mr. Switzer passed away in 2014 with a will leaving everything to his wife, Patricia.&nbsp;&nbsp;Prior to his marriage to Patricia, he was hired at the United States Postal Service, and a benefit of that employment was a life insurance policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;He, being unmarried at the time, named his co-worker and then-girlfriend, Kay, as his beneficiary.&nbsp;&nbsp;When Patricia contacted the life insurance company following his death, she learned that Mr. Switzer never made any updates to his beneficiary designations.&nbsp;&nbsp;Despite his being married to Patricia and his will leaving everything to her as his wife, the life insurance was a non-probate asset and would only be paid to the designated beneficiary, the ex-girlfriend, Kay.&nbsp;



It is easy to sign up for benefits or designate beneficiaries when a job is started early in one’s career, and then simply never look back to determine if those beneficiaries are up to date.&nbsp;&nbsp;For many people, a substantial portion of their estate value is governed not by a will, but by these beneficiary designations.&nbsp;&nbsp;Take the time today to do an audit of your own beneficiary designations to ensure they are current and reflect your wishes.&nbsp;



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<a href="applewebdata://4FEFBB2A-D2B1-4B6D-A5CF-EDC8D45C2539#_ftnref1">[1]</a>&nbsp;Switzer v. Vaughan, No. 05-15-00811-CV, Memorandum Opinion (Tex. Ct. App. – Dallas July 27, 2016).&nbsp;

Update Your Beneficiaries!

Authors Joe Outlaw and Bart L. Fischer



We have all heard the old proverb “it takes a village to raise a child.”&nbsp;&nbsp;Indeed, an entire community is needed to interact with and guide a young person to grow into a well- rounded adult.&nbsp;&nbsp;If the last 2 years are any proof, the same could be said about farm policy. Against the backdrop of exploding input costs and falling prices, the various components of the Federal government ultimately came together to begin addressing the bleak economic outlook. For example:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>While Congress was unable to get a farm bill done in 2024, they ultimately provided $30.78 billion in assistance for both economic and natural disaster losses from the 2023 and 2024 crop years.  Within 90 days of passage, the newly minted Secretary of Agriculture, Brook Rollins, had implemented the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) and quickly followed with the initial round of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP).</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>As 2025 unfolded, when it became apparent that a bipartisan farm bill was unlikely, the Chairmen of the House and Senate Agricultural Committees along with the leadership in each chamber and the administration worked to include more than $60 billion in enhancements to the farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). OBBBA was passed through the reconciliation process and was signed into law on July 4th of last year, with the enhanced provisions taking affect for the 2025 crop which was already well underway. While the marketing year average prices that determine the amount of assistance are still being determined, it is safe to say that all of the efforts that were put into getting the enhanced safety net provisions in the OBBBA will be felt and greatly appreciated by producers when payments are distributed after October 1st for those crops that trigger assistance. And, at the moment, it looks like virtually all crops will trigger.  </li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>As we approached the end of 2025 with economic and trade-related losses still outstripping the assistance that will eventually arrive under the OBBBA, the Trump Administration stepped in and announced the creation of the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program that will inject an additional $12 billion of operating capital on farms by the end of February. </li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The agricultural leaders in the U.S. Congress are considering taking this even further, with some reports suggesting yet another $15 billion in assistance could go out the door to address other 2025 crop year losses, including those of special crop and sugar producers that were not included in FBA and have yet to be addressed by USDA.</li>
</ul>



Getting the regulations completed for all of these program changes—and for the new programs—takes the effort of everyone from the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Risk Management Agency (RMA) at USDA to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the White House to the congressional agricultural committee staff, just to name a few. Despite all of the disfunction and infighting in Washington, “the village” has still managed to come together to make positive changes to address the bleak outlook facing U.S. farmers.



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Outlaw, Joe, and Bart L. Fischer. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/08/it-takes-a-village/">It Takes a Village</a>.&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(4.4). January 22, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/08/it-takes-a-village/">Permalink</a>

It Takes a Village

With the continued growth of agricultural production in Brazil, it is increasingly important for U.S. row crop producers to monitor crop conditions there, as the two countries compete directly in global markets. With Brazil located in the Southern Hemisphere, its growing season runs opposite that of the United States, so soybean harvest in Brazil is just beginning, with corn, cotton, and other crops to follow later in the U.S. winter and spring. This article provides an update on current estimates and crop progress for the Brazilian production season<ins>&nbsp;based on the January WASDE report from USDA and other sources</ins>.



In Brazil, soybean planting typically runs from September through December, with harvest of early-planted soybeans beginning in January. While some regions experienced early-season planting delays in 2025 due to irregular rainfall, planting progressed strongly later in the season and was largely completed on schedule. As of January 10, soybean harvest has begun in select areas, though progress remains below 1% nationally.



&nbsp;The USDA is currently projecting Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, up from 171.5 million metric tons last year. If realized, this would represent another record level of production. Continued expansion of Brazil’s soybean sector is being driven by several factors, including the implementation of a new B15 biodiesel mandate and strong demand from China. Brazil is also expected to remain the world’s leading soybean exporter, with projected exports of 114 million metric tons, compared to 42.86 million metric tons for the United States. Brazil’s growing share of the Chinese import market will continue to pose a competitive challenge for U.S. soybean producers.



Brazil, unlike the United States, can produce two corn crops per year. The first corn crop is planted from October through December, with harvest beginning in February, and it has historically accounted for the majority of Brazilian corn production. Over the past 15 years, however, growth in Brazil’s corn output has been driven primarily by expansion of the second corn crop (safrinha) (Figure 1). This second crop is planted following the harvest of early-season soybeans in January and February and is harvested from June through September.



The 2024/25 crop year was a strong production year for Brazilian corn. However, the USDA currently projects 2025 corn production at 131 million metric tons, approximately 2 percent lower than last year. This outlook is driven primarily by expectations of lower yields associated with La Niña conditions. It is important to note that the second corn crop, which in recent years has accounted for approximately 79 percent of total Brazilian corn production, has not yet been planted this year, meaning production estimates could change significantly as the season progresses. In addition, early-season delays in soybean planting could delay harvest, which in turn may reduce the ability to plant the second-crop corn within the optimal planting window, increasing downside production risk.



Finally, the Brazilian cotton crop is planted from December through February and harvested from May through September. The USDA projects Brazilian cotton production to increase to 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year and 28 percent from 2023. For the first time in 2024, Brazil surpassed the United States as the world’s leading cotton exporter and is projected to maintain that position during the current crop year. Improvements in cotton quality have been a key driver of growing global demand for Brazilian cotton. In addition, ongoing uncertainty in global trade has further supported demand, as importing countries seek to diversify their supplier base. For U.S. cotton producers, Brazil will remain a major competitor, with higher production levels contributing to increased global cotton stocks.



With Brazil remaining a major competitor to U.S. agricultural exports, it is important for producers to know where to find reliable information on Brazilian production. The USDA&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report">World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)</a>report remains the primary source of supply and demand data for major commodities in the United States and globally. Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) also publishes production estimates through its&nbsp;<a href="https://portaldeinformacoes.conab.gov.br/produtos-360.html">Agricultural Information Portal</a>, which contains a wide range of useful data. Although the website is in Portuguese, most internet browsers offer built-in translation tools that allow producers to navigate the information easily. As always, your state Extension crop marketing specialist is an excellent source of timely analysis and interpretation of these data.



Figure 1. Brazilian Corn Production by Corn Crop&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2145" height="1443" src="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.04.3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-43310" srcset="https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.04.3.png 2145w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.04.3-1024x689.png 1024w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.04.3-768x517.png 768w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.04.3-1536x1033.png 1536w, https://sat-wp.afpc.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/6.04.3-2048x1378.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2145px) 100vw, 2145px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: CONAB&nbsp;</figcaption></figure>



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Maples, William E. &#8220;<a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/08/brazilian-crop-progress-what-u-s-producers-should-watch/">Brazilian Crop Progress: What U.S. Producers Should Watch.</a>&#8221; Southern Ag Today 6(4.3). January 21, 2026. <a href="https://southernagtoday.org/2026/01/08/brazilian-crop-progress-what-u-s-producers-should-watch/">Permalink</a>

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